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Long-term investment & planning concepts
El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:11 AM | Post #60825 |  29 Replies
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This post was initially written as a response for a new investor on a Morningstar forum and was previously titled "Getting started for the new investor" but the scope has since been greatly expanded and includes many additional planning and retirement topics. This revision has several new sections along with updated and more extensive use of web links to pertinent material. I'd especially like to thank the Morningstar community members who have contributed to the content, format and review of the material.

This post contains the following 21 parts:

I.... Building a solid financial foundation (New section)
II... Insurance & financial security (New section)
III.. Understanding Risk vs. Reward (New section)
IV... Establishment of accumulation goals
V.... Developing a long-term investment plan
VI... Age adjusted asset allocation & Rates of Return
VII.. Fund selection process using Morningstar tools
VIII. Fund analysis in portfolio design
IX... Instant X-ray tool & examples
X.... Effects of taxation on wealth accumulation
XI... Funding College expenses
XII.. Retirement investing & withdrawal strategies
XIII. Dynamic risk & age adjusted portfolio
XIV.. Annuity basics
XV... Long-Term Care Planning
XVI.. Reverse Mortgage to supplement income
XVII. Need a Financial Planner/Advisor?
XVIII URLs of interest (General & taxation)
XIX.. URLs of interest (Investment & historical)
XX... URLs of interest (Education, Insurance & other)
XXI.. Summary

Investors unfamiliar with any of the investment terminology used in this document should refer to one of the following on-line glossaries for a definition:

  • Vanguard Site Glossary
  • Investment Company Institute
  • InvestorWords.com

    New investors should seriously consider reading an introductory book like "Mutual Funds for Dummies" by Eric Tyson and/or Vanguard's free introductory booklets "Investment Planner" and "Facts on Funds" that can be downloaded from their website. Suggested reading for more advanced investors would include:

  • "Bogle on Mutual Funds" by John Bogle
  • "Investment Strategies for the 21st Century" by Frank Armstrong
  • "What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know" by Larry Swedroe
  • "The Bond Book" by Annette Thau

    Additional on-line information about mutual fund investing and asset allocation can be found at Vanguard University, Morningstar University and MaxFunds University. Another web site for good unbiased mutual fund information and educational material is the Mutual Fund Education Alliance.

    Remember; it's your money and your choice!

    Hope this helps & best wishes,
    John

    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Page 1 of 2 | 1 2 Next >
    Part I - Build a solid financial foundation
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:11 AM | Post #1279903
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    The secret to financial security and wealth accumulation is risk and debt management, which entails being adequately insured, paying off credit card debts and living within your means by establishing a budget and adhering to it. Everyone's situation is different but financial planners typically recommend the establishment of an emergency fund of 3 to 12 months of monthly living expenses depending on the likelihood of finding employment within that period of time should you suddenly become unemployed. Maintaining an emergency fund is an essential first step of investing because it ensures you'll NOT have to sell equities or other assets during down periods of the markets.

    The degree of liquidity of said money has been the subject of on-going debate. However, such money should never be invested in the equity markets given the volatility and unpredictable nature of such investments. Some of the acceptable alternatives, which can be used in combinations for such money, are:

  • Money market account with checking
  • Bank savings accounts
  • Bank CDs (short duration CDs with laddered maturities is recommended)
  • EE Bonds (several purchases over the course of a year is recommended)
  • I-Bonds (several purchases over the course of a year is recommended)
  • Short or Ultra short term bond funds
  • Home equity line of credit
  • Roth IRA (created via contributions over several years)

    The Roth IRA was reluctantly included as an alternative because contributions can be withdrawn tax-free at any time unless of course the tax law changes. However, using the Roth IRA in this fashion should ONLY be considered by those that are fully funding other qualified retirement plans, such as 457, 401K and 403B plans, which represent their main retirement savings while desiring to maintain large amounts of liquid assets. The advantage of using a Roth IRA for a portion of said money is that of tax efficiency and more reasonable investment choices such as TIPS and other types of Bond funds. EE Bonds and I-Bonds can serve a dual role in an investment plan, which is that of an emergency fund in the early accumulation phase and later receive preferential tax treatment if used to fund educational expenses.

    Another important criteria of a successful long-term financial plan is that of establishing and maintaining a good credit rating, knowing your credit score and the factors that affect your FICO Credit Score. Information pertinent to your credit report can be obtained from the following credit bureaus:

    Equifax Credit Information Service
    P.O. Box 740241
    Atlanta, GA 30374-0241
    800-685-1111

    Experian (formerly TRW Credit Data)
    P.O. Box 2002
    Allen TX 75013-0036
    888-397-3742

    Trans Union Corp
    P.O. Box 1000
    Chester PA 19022
    800-888-4213

    and on-line at myFICO.COM

    After establishing an emergency fund of appropriate size, new investors should then determine their risk tolerance prior to investing. The development of an asset allocation and long-term plan, which can be adhered to in both good and bad markets, is much more important than the specific funds chosen! Investors with a long-term plan and the discipline to adhere to said plan have a much higher likelihood of success than investors without plans. Having a plan and adhering to it helps isolate an investor emotionally from the "greed and fear" cycles most markets experience. An old but appropriate clich is:

    "It's not the investor's plan that fails but that the investor fails to plan"

    It's NOT timing the market but time in the market that builds wealth through the miracle of compound interest. For example, assuming a 10% annual rate of return, a twenty year old investing $2K in a retirement account for ten years and then never investing another penny will amass more money for retirement than a thirty year old investing $2k every year for the rest of their life. Individuals saving for retirement should maximize contributions to tax advantaged accounts with the usual order of contributions being:

  • Qualified Retirement Plan (QRP) to the employer's matching amount
  • Roth IRA which provides tax-free retirement withdrawals
    or  Deductible IRA if applicable for additional mutual fund choices
  • Remaining amounts to QRP maximums (especially high tax bracket individuals)

    Lastly, be tax wise as it's NOT what you make but what you keep that matters!

    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Part II - Insurance & financial security
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:12 AM | Post #1279905
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    The most valuable asset each of us has is that of our earning power which should therefore probably be insured. As it may be several decades before either disability or life insurance benefits are needed, research the financial strength of the insurance providers by using a good unbiased rating service, such as:

  • Standard & Poor's
  • A.M.Best
  • Fitch

    prior to purchasing the policy. If you are turned down for life or disability insurance, verify the correctness of your medical records at the Medical Insurance Bureau at 617-426-3660.

    Disability insurance and what to look for

    Most disability insurers, including Social Security, have a waiting period before benefits commence. For most workers, Social Security Disability Insurance will replace but a portion of the income for a disabled participant and ONLY for those totally incapacitated and unable to work in any fashion. An estimate of disability benefits can be found in the PEBES mailed annually or can be obtained by calling Social Security at 800-772-1213 and requesting form SSA-7004.

    Anyone NOT covered by an employer's long-term disability plan should at least consider getting a disability policy from a private insurer to augment SSDI coverage. Attributes of a disability policy are:

  • Definition of disability
  • Guaranteed renewable
  • Non-cancelable
  • Waiting period
  • Benefits period
  • Premium waiver provision

    The most critical factors when choosing a disability policy are the definition of disability and criteria that trigger coverage.
     

    Life insurance should be used to mitigate risk and NOT as an investment.

    In addition to the safety net provided by Social Security survivors' benefits, anyone with dependents should insure against the family's loss of their earning power via adequate life insurance, with the amount of insurance being derived from the number of years of income replacement. As you age, Net worth increases and dependent children mature, therefore the amount and length of time needed for income replacement decreases. Because of the declining nature of this insurance need, a cost effective alternative may be to use a decreasing term policy for a specified period in combination with a permanent low load policy.

    Life insurance is available in a variety of options such as:

    TERM life (least expensive)

  • Annual renewable - guaranteed renewable without on-going medical exams
  • Level term - guarantees annual premiums for specific period of time
  • Decreasing term - policy for a specified period of time with decreasing coverage

    Quotes for inexpensive Term life policies can be obtained at:

    SelectQuote or 800-670-3214
    BestQuote or 888-521-7575
    QuoteSmith or 800-556-9393

    Permanent or cash value life

  • Whole life - lifetime fixed premiums
  • Universal Life - flexible premiums permit altering the death benefit
  • Variable Life - death benefit determined by the cash value at time of death
  • Variable Universal Life - more control over cash value investment options
  • 2nd to die - estate planning tool to pay estate taxes for affluent couples
  • 1st to die - business partnership planning tool

    Anyone contemplating permanent insurance should consider using insurers that offer low load insurance directly to the public, such as:

    Ameritas Life or 800-555-4655
    USAA Life or 800-531-1433
    Wholesale Insurance Network at 800-808-5810

    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Part III - Understanding Risk vs. Reward
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:13 AM | Post #1279906
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    One of the most critical decisions confronting a new investor is that of determining his or her own tolerance for risk and understanding risk. Portfolio diversification can help reduce but not eliminate risk. New investors would be wise to read the Morningstar series "An Investment Risk Primer" to better understand the risks of investing. Some of the risks that confront investors are:

  • Loss of capital (market risk)
  • Loss of purchasing power (inflation risk)
  • Interest rate risk
  • Credit quality risk
  • Prepayment risk for callable assets
  • Liquidity risk
  • Political risk
  • Currency risks

    After years of a bull market in domestic equities, many investors became complacent and reduced or abandoned their less risky and less volatile assets in the hopes of instant wealth. Investors who became excessively aggressive were punished through large capital losses in their portfolios during the sharp market drop and found that they needed to reassess their asset allocation decisions. Therefore, serious consideration should be given to using one or more of the on-line asset allocation planners, such as MSN MoneyCentral Risk Tolerance Quiz or the Vanguard's Investor Questionnaire, to aid in the determination of the correct stock/bond/cash investment mix which can be adhered to, even during down markets.

    An important step when developing an investment plan is to analyze your goals and long-term employment situation carefully and then determine what rate of return will be needed to meet your objectives. An investor's circumstances, willingness or need to assume risk to market volatility may dictate that they assume a portfolio of lesser return than others in their age bracket having a higher risk tolerance or need to take risk. One way to determine an appropriate stock/bond asset allocation that takes into consideration your personal circumstances is to use one of the many on-line planners available on the web such Fidelity's Asset Allocation Planner or the M* Goal Planner.

    Caveat: The various on-line planners should be viewed as optimistic projections of expected accumulated wealth because:

  • most do NOT use an age-adjusted asset allocation
  • most use a specified wage growth rate until retirement

    For planning purposes, it's imperative to use realistic expected rates of return.

    Rate of Return Estimates for Bonds, Stocks, REITs, GDP & Inflation

    Index ------------------------------  ROR   Risk*
    US Treasury Bills (1 yr maturity)...  4.0 |  2.0
    US Treasury Notes (5 yr maturity)...  4.8 |  4.8
    Govt. Agency Notes (5 yr maturity)..  5.3 |  5.3
    Long-term US Treasury Bonds.........  5.5 |  8.0

    Investment Grade Corp. Bonds (5 yr).  6.0 |  5.5
    Long-term Invest. Grade Corp. Bonds.  6.5 |  8.5
    High Yield Corp. Bonds (BB or less).  9.0 | 15.0

    Domestic Large Capitalized Stocks...  8.0 | 15.0
    Domestic Small Capitalized Stocks... 10.0 | 20.0
    Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs)  8.0 | 15.0

    Developed country Int'l Large Cap...  8.0 | 17.0
    Developed country Int'l Small Cap... 10.0 | 22.0
    International Emerging Markets...... 12.0 | 25.0

    GDP (Nominal & Real Rates)..........  6.0 |  2.0
    Inflation (Consumer Price Index)....  3.0 |  1.5

    Source: Portfolio Solutions, LLC

    *Risk is the standard deviation of annual returns.

    A portfolio's return is NOT determined by what funds are chosen but by the asset allocation of the portfolio. Asset allocation differences between portfolios typically account for as much as 90% of the variations in returns. Vanguard's "Investment Planner" booklet provides the following comparison data based on 1926-2000 returns for various stock/bond allocations.

    Stock
    /Bond    Avg. |  Worst | # of loss
    Alloc. Return |  Loss  |   Years

    100/0 | 11.0% | -43.1% | 21 of 75
    80/20 | 10.3% | -34.9% | 20 of 75
    60/40 |  9.3% | -26.6% | 18 of 75
    40/60 |  8.2% | -18.4% | 16 of 75
    20/80 |  7.0% | -10.1% | 13 of 75

    with equities represented by the S&P 500.

    Remember; higher risk portfolios do NOT guarantee higher returns!

    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Part IV - Establishment of accumulation goals
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:13 AM | Post #1279907
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    To establish realistic accumulation goals for retirement, it's imperative to analyze and understand all sources of income available during retirement:

  • Pensions
  • Qualified retirement plans
  • Savings
  • Part-time employment
  • Social Security

    Social Security benefits are calculated from a worker's earnings history with full benefits dependent upon date of birth but can commence as early as age 62 at a reduced rate. An estimate of your benefits can be found in the Personal Earnings and Benefits Estimate Statement (PEBES) mailed annually or can be obtained by calling the Social Security Administration at 1-800-772-1213 and requesting form SSA-7004.

    Information on Social Security can be found at:

  • Benefits overview
  • Family benefits
  • Widow & survivor benefits
  • Benefits calculator

    A serious consideration when determining your accumulation goal is:

    Will the social security system remain solvent and/or how will benefits change?


    Currently, the approximate percentage of pre-retirement income replaced by the Social Security benefits is:

    Final | Income
    Salary| replacement

    $ 30K | 40%
    $ 60K | 30%
    $150K | 15%


    Inflation can gradually erode the purchasing power of a portfolio without your being aware of it. The table below represents the amount needed to have equivalent projected purchasing power assuming various levels of inflation over time.

    yr\% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

    ---| 1000 1000 1000
     5 | 1159 1188 1217
    10 | 1344 1411 1480
    15 | 1558 1675 1801
    20 | 1806 1990 2191
    25 | 2094 2363 2666
    30 | 2427 2807 3243


    Therefore, time horizon and inflation affect the accumulations needed to maintain a standard of living during retirement.

    A long-term plan should utilize reasonable macro-economic assumptions. If you live in a state where salary reductions for retirement contributions are subject to state and local taxes during working years, retirement distributions may be exempt from those taxes during retirement years, thus making this a concern if relocation is a consideration during retirement. The example below utilizes the following assumptions:

    3.0% inflation

    The social security system remains solvent with minimal changes

    15.0% salary reduction for retirement contribution*
    +7.5% social security taxes (subject to earnings limits)
    +5.0% state tax rate*
    +2.5%
    local tax rate*
    30.0% total salary reductions


    * Prospective retirees should utilize parameters specific to their situation and contribution limits.

    EXAMPLE:

    Assuming a 3% COLA, a couple of age 50 earning $65K will have a combined estimated salary of about $100K at age 65. Their final combined salary, less appropriate reductions, should be used in determining the retirement accumulations needed to maintain their standard of living during retirement. Other expenses projected to be eliminated prior to retirement (mortgage expenses) will reduce the annual withdrawal and should be taken into consideration. Click here for an income worksheet for retirees.

    $100.0K Combined pre-retirement salary
    -$15.0K 401K Contributions (subject to limits)
    -$ 7.5K Social security taxes (subject to earnings limits)
    -$ 5.0K State taxes
    -$ 2.5K
    Local taxes
     $70.0K
    -$ 0.0K Pension benefits
    -$24.0K
    Estimated social security benefits
     $46.0K Starting 401K withdrawal

    Note: Special care should be given by couples with respect to reducing final pre-retirement income by their combined estimated Social Security benefits because, at the death of the first spouse, the surviving spouse will lose that portion of the income stream resulting from the deceased spouse's benefit.

    The Trinity study, which analyzed portfolio survivability using various rates of withdrawal, concluded that a 4% inflation adjusted withdrawal rate has a high probability of surviving withdrawals during retirement for most portfolios. Therefore, the minimum goal for retirement savings for the above couple should be $1.15M, calculated by dividing $46K/0.04. An on-line retirement calculator can be found at SmartMoney.

    A "Rule of Thumb" formula to estimate target accumulations by age for tracking purposes for retiring at age 65 is:

    Target= (Age - 25)*salary
            (3+($30K/salary))


    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Part V - Development of an investment plan
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:14 AM | Post #1279908
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    The single most important endeavor investors undertake is the establishment of a long-term investment plan consisting of:

  • Goals and objectives
  • Time horizon (ability to take risk)
  • Age-adjusted risk tolerance (willingness to take risk)
  • Required rates of return (realistic need to take risk)
  • Asset allocation
  • Accumulation and withdrawal philosophies
  • Monitoring and rebalancing philosophy

    Once an asset allocation is determined, the investor can begin the development of the portfolio. Investors should use as few funds as possible in the creation of a diversified portfolio to allow ease of management. Index funds make excellent core holdings within a portfolio, providing exposure to several asset classes and investment styles. For example, a Total Stock Market fund as a core holding provides exposure to domestic small, mid and large cap stocks as well as growth and value styles. However, a Total Stock Market fund may not offer the assets classes in the desired proportions. A better methodology might be to use a combination of an S&P 500 and extended market (Wilshire 4500) fund to allow better control of your asset allocation within the U.S. stock market. Investors using only TSM allow the market to determine their asset allocation rather than making the investment decision themselves in accordance with their plan. Many decisions made during the fund selection process include:

  • Load vs. no-load funds
  • Passive vs. active investments
  • Growth vs. value
  • Taxable vs. non-taxable assets
  • Fund expenses
  • Diversification
  • Asset class correlations

    When possible, an investor should choose lower expense funds as expenses do matter and affect the portfolio's long-term rate of return. When the option exists, highly tax efficient assets like stocks, index funds, I-Bonds and tax-managed funds should be held in taxable accounts. Tax inefficient assets like TIPS, bonds, taxable fixed income instruments and REIT funds should be held in tax-deferred accounts. Actively managed funds should also be held in tax-deferred accounts as these funds can generate large capital gains distributions. A highly diversified portfolio could contain the following asset classes maintained in accordance to your age-adjusted risk tolerance:

  • Domestic stocks (Small, Mid & Large Cap)
  • International stocks (Small, Mid & Large Cap)
  • Emerging market funds
  • Real Estate funds
  • Bonds (Short term, Corporate, I-Bonds, Int'l ...)
  • Money market or annuities

    An investor's risk tolerance will (to some extent) dictate their exposure and allocation to various asset classes. For example, because of the increased volatility of small cap stocks, many investors maintain their large cap to small cap ratio in the 2:1 to 3:1 range during their accumulation years, but switch to a ratio of as much as 3:1 to 5:1 range during retirement.

    When evaluating funds for inclusion in a portfolio, attributes to consider are:

  • Fund expenses
  • Fund's turnover rate
  • Fund's long term return (3, 5 & 10 year avgs when available)
  • Fund's volatility and correlation statistics (Using Beta & R-squared)
  • Tax efficiency

    Lastly, the rebalancing process, which restores a portfolio back to its original risk profile, should be done annually or when one of the asset classes is out of the acceptable allocation range as per the investment plan. When possible, rebalancing activity should be restricted to tax deferred accounts due to tax implications or accomplished with new monies. The rebalancing process forces an investor to adhere to the "buy low and sell high" philosophy by selling a portion of the better performing and possibly over-valued asset classes and adding to under-performing assets classes at possibly bargain prices. This will capture and retain unexpected gains and take advantage of unexpected declines by moving money back into under-performing asset classes closer to market bottoms.

    Originally posted in thread: 8454
  • Related Topics
    Part VI -Age adjusted asset allocation & ROR
    El Toro 04-20-2002, 11:14 AM | Post #1279909
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    Past performance can only be used as a guide on how best to invest for expected future returns. Asset classes drift in and out of favor over time and your best bet is to own a highly diversified portfolio of all asset classes in appropriate proportions, depending on your "age-adjusted" risk tolerance. You can review the historic returns for various equity asset classes at

    Callan Associates

    An old but appropriate clich:

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results!

    When determining the rate of return necessary to meet your objectives, the investor should consider inflation, fund expenses and taxes as the three worst enemies of success. The latter two can be controlled through planning and choice. But inflation will sneak up gradually and eventually decimate the spending power of your portfolio without your being aware of it. The Moral: Beware and be aware of inflation!

    The following table represents hypothetical well-diversified "age-adjusted" portfolios for demonstration purposes ONLY, along with the annual expected rate of return (ROR) for each:

    ..........................Portfolio Objectives..............
    Asset Class..... Wealth ... Aggr . Growth . Conserv. Preserve
    ................ Builder . Growth &Income . Growth . Capital
    Stock/Bond Ratio. 100/0 .. 80/20 .. 60/40 .. 40/60 .. 20/80


    US Large Cap..... 40.0% .. 35.0% .. 30.0% .. 25.0% .. 10.0%
    US Mid Cap....... 10.0% ... 7.5% ... 5.0% ... 2.5% ... 0.0%
    US Small Cap..... 10.0% ... 7.5% ... 5.0% ... 2.5% ... 0.0%
    REITs............ 10.0% .. 10.0% ... 5.0% ... 5.0% ... 5.0%
    Int'l............ 25.0% .. 15.0% .. 10.0% ... 5.0% ... 5.0%
    Emrg Mrkts........ 5.0% ... 5.0% ... 5.0% ... 0.0% ... 0.0%
    Inter. Term Bonds. 0.0% ...10.0% .. 10.0% .. 15.0% .. 15.0%
    Short Term Bonds.. 0.0% .. 10.0% .. 20.0% .. 30.0% .. 50.0%
    Money Market...... 0.0% ... 0.0% .. 10.0% .. 15.0% .. 15.0%

    Estimated ROR..... 9.0% ... 8.5% ... 8.0% ... 7.5% ... 7.0%

    Volatility & Risk. Very .. High .. Moderate . Low ... Very
    ... Tolerance .... High ............................. Low

    RISK PROFILE \ AGE

    Aggressive ....... 20-35 .. 35-50 .. 50-65 .. 65-75 .. 75+
    Average ................... 20-35 .. 35-50 .. 50-70 .. 70+
    Conservative ....................... 20-50 .. 50-65 .. 65+
    Risk Adverse ................................ 20-60 .. 60+

    Again, these are hypothetical "age-adjusted" portfolios and should only be used as a guide for designing a portfolio that meets your age and risk profile in accordance to your long-term plan. A larger percentage of stock exposure may be appropriate for investors in the early accumulation phase of their plan However, a long-term investment plan should provide for a moderation in risk as you age because your ability to take risk is reduced or as you near your objective because the need to take risk is diminished.

    Originally posted in thread: 8454