Steve, we are in some weird financial times right now. Investors are hesitant to take on risk, which is driving values of even high quality AAA bonds down. Even municipal bonds are being dumped in favor of treasuries.
Here are a few comparisons:
- Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market (VMSXX): 5.18% (100% muni gov't)
- Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX): 5.13% (100% federal gov't-backed, but not gov't)
- Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade (VFSTX): 4.80% (36% AAA)
- FDIC-insured one-year bank CD's: around 3% or so
- Vanguard Short-Term Treasury (VFISX): 2.14% (100% federal gov't)
How is that for weirdness? Apparently, the market has overwhelmingly decided that they prefer gov't over gov't-backed, muni gov't, and corporates (looks like FDIC-insured bank CD's also). Those are pretty huge spreads, meaning the market is expecing even worse economic conditions, and investors' appetite for risk is almost zero right now.
You have to make a decision, and it depends on your outlook of the economy. Either the economy will continue to get worse, or it will get better. If you think it will continue to get worse, then VFSTX is a bad choice, and you will only be throwing good money after bad. If you think it will get better, then buying VFSTX will make you look like a genius, not to mention helping to create some much-needed liquidity in this dry spell.
Dan