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Historic buying opportunity for VG Short-Term Inv-Grade (VFSTX)?
TallyMan 09-27-2008, 8:18 AM | Post #2567396 |  3 Replies
0  

To my layman's eyes, it seems that the market's hammering of high-quality ST corporate bonds has been excessive (latest M* data follows). My wife and I currently only have a very small position in this fund, but I am considering putting quite a bit of new money into the fund as an attempt to exploit the situation for a long-term play to weigh into a relatively low NAV and relatively high yield.

For my wife and me, long-term, the fund would be an income generator during retirement, along with a mix of a Fla state pension, social security, some muni funds, some laddered CDs, and perhaps a TIAA annuity. Unfortunately, we have very little  room for it in our tax sheltered accounts so the new money in VFSTX would need to be in a taxable acct.

I recognize that my wife and I would be taking on some extra risk compared with more money in our CD ladder (each holding under the FDIC limit), but it seems that with VFST's short duration and high quality holdings, and currently depressed NAV, it would be a decent, and still low-risk,  way to goose our over-all long term yield some, it's short duration minimizing interest rate risk. Or perhaps the risk is greater than I think?

Our situation: age 60, wife at 59. Anticipate needing interest from this asset at my age ~66, perhaps as early as age 62.

M* Data for VG Short-Term Inv-Grade (VFSTX)
Average Eff Duration 2.12 Yrs
Yield %    4.85
-
AAA    35.6
AA    20.2
A    23.6
BBB    17.3
-
Total Trailing Return %
1-Month            -3.63
3-Month            -3.52
Year-to-date        -2.49
1-Year            -0.60
3-Year Annualized     2.93
5-Year Annualized    2.65
10-Yr Annualized*    4.68

 Your thoughts on any of the above appreciated, Steve

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Depends on your outlook
chipmunk 09-27-2008, 9:27 AM | Post #2567415
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Steve, we are in some weird financial times right now. Investors are hesitant to take on risk, which is driving values of even high quality AAA bonds down. Even municipal bonds are being dumped in favor of treasuries.

Here are a few comparisons:

  • Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market (VMSXX): 5.18% (100% muni gov't)
  • Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX): 5.13% (100% federal gov't-backed, but not gov't)
  • Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade (VFSTX): 4.80% (36% AAA)
  • FDIC-insured one-year bank CD's: around 3% or so
  • Vanguard Short-Term Treasury (VFISX): 2.14% (100% federal gov't)

How is that for weirdness? Apparently, the market has overwhelmingly decided that they prefer gov't over gov't-backed, muni gov't, and corporates (looks like FDIC-insured bank CD's also). Those are pretty huge spreads, meaning the market is expecing even worse economic conditions, and investors' appetite for risk is almost zero right now.

You have to make a decision, and it depends on your outlook of the economy. Either the economy will continue to get worse, or it will get better. If you think it will continue to get worse, then VFSTX is a bad choice, and you will only be throwing good money after bad. If you think it will get better, then buying VFSTX will make you look like a genius, not to mention helping to create some much-needed liquidity in this dry spell.

Dan

Re: Depends on your outlook
TallyMan 09-27-2008, 4:00 PM | Post #2567556
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Dan, Thx for your response. Insighttful, as always. Since my wife and my portfolio is otherwise quite conservative and pretty well diversified, I might add some money to VFSTX. The only thing that I am positive-of is I am no genius. Lately I have had a few lucky calls getting in and out of some investments, and also I don't want to press my luck too much. Steve

 

Re: Depends on your outlook
lionel 10-01-2008, 12:00 PM | Post #2569500
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Supposing my take is the Economy will get worse in spite of the bailout, what are the thoughts of anyone here on Vanguard Short-Term Treasury vs the TIPS Fund ?

And given that Gross holds GNMA's and foreign currency-would Harbor be a good fund to hols in such a case? Any comments appreciated.

Lionel

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