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Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
rrr777 09-23-2008, 11:53 AM | Post #2565686 |  24 Replies
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I have a significant amount of retirement saving in the balanced fund and some in the stock fund - does it make sense to hold on until it recovers ?

What are the strategies to survive this situation?  Curious to know the thoughts of other longtimer dodge & cox fans.

Thanks

 

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Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
Owen 09-23-2008, 1:16 PM | Post #2565724
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I would hold it, although I have been very disappointed in their ability to preserve capital with their investments in FNM, AIG, GM, and WB

 Over the long term they will be fine, they will not cut their losses and that is part of the problem because of their size

Short term there will be more pain here

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
Racqueteer 09-23-2008, 4:46 PM | Post #2565793
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I think that most/all of the pain is already in on this fund.  If you've held on THIS far, I don't think there's much reason to bail on it now.  Because of the beating it's taken, it will also probably rebound very well.  However, when the dust settles, I'd be looking for another fund to at least complement this one; it did a pretty poor job as a moderate allocation fund.
Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
WWILLLIE 09-24-2008, 9:31 AM | Post #2566021
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I got into it around 6 years ago.  It was a fund that had a positive return for years, until I got into it- ofcourse.  Actually, it is still 4 star rated and has a high ownership by the D&C folks themselves, so I'm hanging in there.  I have to say, I have my wife into the VG Wellington fund - another balanced fund - in one of her accounts, and put both into Morningstar Fund Compare...was very surprised.  VG Wellington shined in returns for all periods, but not enough to cash in on D&C and switch.  I'm keeping the faith for now.

I, like you, have about 10% of total portfolio in this fund, so I have some great expectations.

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
Hedgebet 09-24-2008, 2:36 PM | Post #2566145
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Hi rrr777,

I suppose this would depend on your time horizon and current asset allocation. If you are still right where you want to be with your AA then you should be on track to get through these times.

The Dodge & Cox Balanced fund is, IMO, one of the better places to have a portion of your portfolio during these rough times.

Why, you might ask?

Because the fund managers at D&C are doing what I would have a difficult time doing  on my own. That is to stay the course and go for the long term gain. Granted, the market is changing rapidly and has not seen these types of turmoil for a time but bailing out of this quality fund now doesn't make sense to me. Where would you go with your funds, to another fund that seems to be doing well right now?

IMO, DODBX will weather this storm and be well positioned to take advantage of some good news in the future.

I have a good amount in DODBX as well as some investment in D&C Internation Fund. It doesn't look very good seeing red ink and blood spilling from my portfolio but I'm not about to jump ship right now. D&C is part of my AA as is OAKBX along with a Small Cap Fund. I only have 4 funds with low ER but I feel well diversified. Noneseem to be doing what I would call 'well' right now, I don't have any bear funds and haven't wanted to gamble on sectors so I'm just staying the course to ride it out with the rest of the nation. We'll get through this as long as we work together to find solutions.

I hope this country chooses wisely during the coming election and does what's best for our economy, no one knows how that will turn out but I have faith that the dust will settle as the market gains more confidence in what lies ahead.

I've asked myself the same question about D&C and I still feel that I chose well in choosing them to care for a portion of my retirement. They have done well for me over the years, the last thing I want to do is step out on a downswing.

Hope this helps you know how another D&C holder feels about this market.

Dave

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
rrr777 09-25-2008, 8:56 AM | Post #2566455
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Glad to hear folks are keeping the faith.

Mistakenly I had given the "unbreakable" status to D&C because it has a lot features I like.  I am yet find a fund like that except for OAKBX.

-group managed.

-managers have a stake in the fund. Being paid by shares.

-Excellent track records

-Tenure. 

- and a balanced fund

Are there any other funds like this? I have heavily invested in DODBX, DODGX, OAKBX and good old Vanguard Wellingtons, etc. As you see, I love the balanced approach. The value approach.

My horizon to need the funds is atleast another 15yrs.

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
Hedgebet 09-25-2008, 9:08 PM | Post #2566857
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With 15 years before needing the funds DODBX is as good a place as any and better than most to park a portion of your portfolio, IMO. I think the general consensus is that the most important aspects of one's portfolio are Asset Allocation and Diversification, I think a balanced fund is a good way to help keep both of those on course. In addition to the things that you mentioned that you liked about the fund, I might add that a relatively low ER is nice as well, especially with the track record this fund has had. Only time will tell but I'm confident in the management team for the long haul.

I'm glad that I also have a portion in OAKBX since it reacts to the market quite differently than DODBX but still maintains my AA and further diversifies my portfolio.

I've had trouble settling down with any SC funds that I've had over the years, I know it's good to have those bases covered too but they can be difficult to watch at times. I finally settled on a very low ER, SC index fund and am bound and determined to let 'er ride now.

My foreign fund (DODFX) seems to ride lockstep with the rest of my portfolio which brings to light my mistaken assumption, that it would help greatly in diversification ...

... I'm sure it helps over time but doesn't seem to diversify nearly as much as my REIT fund used to (I sold the REIT high which is good but kind of wish I had held on to some of it.)

Good luck in all!

Dave

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
chbocca 09-30-2008, 12:47 AM | Post #2568690
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I too have admired Dodge & Cox Balanced and Global fund for years. My family has a substantial portion of its savings in DODBX and DODGX. I have recommended these two funds to friends often. Morningstar also holds them in high regard, recommends to all their subscribers. Five star Stewardship Grade.

 

But I gotta tell you that my confidence is shaken when I see that their 3rd highest holding Wachovia...3% of their $50B portfolio, or $1.5B...tanked today. They also had some $750M in Fannie Mae. Also, tanked. Finally, AIG…DODGX held more than $1.3B in AIG…AIG has been rescued by Fed. Year to date? DODGX is down more than 30%. Well below index.

 

Here’s Morningstar’s latest DODGX Analyst Report: ”Wachovia has suffered losses due to the housing bust, but the managers think the market has overreacted because the bank was a more disciplined lender during the boom than its peers. Similarly, accounting rules forced AIG to mark down the value of credit default swaps it carries on its books, but the derivatives may turn out to be worth more when the credit and liquidity crises lift, the managers contend.” Is something wrong here? Again, Wachovia and AIG have been bought at fire-sale price or rescued by Fed.

 

Like you, I am a long-term investor...and, Dodge & Cox has a conservative reputation. But I worry that they may be investing enormous amounts of (our) savings into stocks where they just do not have enough visibility. And, recently, their encouragement to shareholders to open-up rules to enable higher investment in commodities, foreign stocks, etc. is unsettling. Finally, their creation of two new funds (DODFX and DODWX)...have they taken their eye off the ball on the stock fund that has been their bed-rock…DODGX? Like the great investment bankers of years gone by, is Dodge and Cox an artifact of past?

 

Do we keep? I guess I am looking for a clear, transparent explanation from Dodge and Cox leadership on how all this happened, what measures have they taken to prevent again, and most importantly, what are doing to regain investor confidence going forward.

 

I will await their explanation before deciding to stay invested or invest more in Dodge & Cox Funds. I trust it will be forthcoming quickly.

Re: Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund - keeper?
Limoman 09-30-2008, 9:09 AM | Post #2568808
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  IMO? Geech, sorry guy.. seriously , not being funny or sarcastic here
> We tried to tell D&C people to either HOLD or Reduce holdings in them since Last yr..
> Diversify into more than 1 Balanced Fund
> Don't Own Stocks vs your Balanced Funds, since it fights each other and each type of management style.. Who are you trusting? Bal. Fund Mgrs to pick the right stocks and allocations or Yourself? And who has the Best track Record past 8/10 yrs? You or Them?
> I diversified into 5 Bal. Funds and added Some Bond Funds to get a 50/50 mix
> Using those Bal. Funds Bonds as a guideline of what Bonds to be buying per their 3rd qtr of 07'..
> and adding some Tips ( VIPSX).
On the Plus side? I doubt it can loose Much More.. maybe another 50% of what the S&P Does in the future.. ( another -5%? )
>thus I would Hold and then when it gets Back to Even? Reduce and move into other Balanced Funds
 > If have New $?  Buy into those other Bal. Funds now.. They are at or below Jan. 's Prices..
> They may drop alittle more, but the difference isn't worth holding out for..
My Balance funds> FPACX,OAKBX,PRPFX,PRWCX & WMRIX/WMMRX
You may have other Bal. funds you like better..but I'd be picking one's that  are
A. Done well in last Bear yrs of 00-02'
B. Doing the best YTD for this Yr..
and not looking at the Bull Market Side..
and don't become 'loyal" or Emotional or Be Positive with your Investments.. Always be suspecious and expect the worse.......Those Fund Mgrs.  are not Thinking the same way..It's not their Job to be Loyal to Investors, but to their Co. & Themselves and get the Most $ to Managed as they can to make the Most in Fee's..
 and they don't really care if it only lasts  10 yrs or Less, would you?
Which would you like to make as a Fund Mgr or Co.:
A. $10 million a Yr for The 1st 10 yrs and then be able to retire to a New Life..?
Or B.  Make $2 million a yr for next 20 yrs? and fight all that stress ?
And Just because they are in Minn. doesn't mean they aren't as Devious as those in Boston or NYC..
and as these Funds get Older and their people Managing them? They change their Goals....( they're Familes/Wives and Kids help them do this )
They've made 10x as much or more than they ever dreamed of and thus become More conservative  and Just aren't as Hungry anymore..( have 1 foot Out the door and off to their Retirement life and/or other New Ventures for them )
I chauffered these guys in this Investment business for over 30 yrs and know most of their real goals in life and it isn't working for a living either.. Many  just want to secure their Financial Future enough to even open up a Antiques store or Go Sailing around the world for a Few yrs and Do Charity work ...ie: ends to a means..not the Rest of their life goal to stay in the Business...
even Balanced Index Funds are the Same group..just look at those Vanguard Bal.Index Funds Mgrs of VWELX & VWINX recently Retiring .. taking their $ and running..towards what they really want to do in life now..
I hope D&C gets back into the Limlight again, ( The Bal. Fund Business needs More Competition ) but I doubt it.. it's just gotten Too Big, unless? They Break it up and get new Younger and Hungrier People at the helm... and let the "Next Generation" give it a shot..( Same goes for those American Funds )
But , I doubt it, not until the Current -Old- Men are willing to move on ...
Drawing a line in the sand
Nagorak 09-30-2008, 2:20 PM | Post #2568984
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I think that the problem D&C has had, along with some other value managers and also the bond guys at Loomis Sayles, is that they saw the tide was coming in (mortgage bust), and they tried to draw a line in the sand just beyond where the water would reach.  The idea being that the whole industry was selling off in fear, so if you invested in the companies right beyond the problem threshold you could find the best values and thus the best returns. 

Unfortunately, the tide wasn't just coming in, it turned out it had a tsunami following behind it.  So, the water quickly overwhelmed the line they had drawn, and the projections which might have been accurate under most normal circumstances proved to be incorrect under the extreme conditions that have occurred. 

Now, you can say it's a mistake, and they should have seen it coming, and there might be something to that.  But I think you can at least understand how they made the mistake in the first place.  There was an overwhelming amount of fraud perpetrated, with mortgages written that were just crap, and even banks that did not get completely swept up in the subprime orgy (going by their Wachovia quote above) have ended up failing.