My assessment (hope?) is that we're going through another sharp consolidation. If you were to look back at the POG over the past 5 years, you'd see several of these consolidations. Precious metal prices are volatile and if you want to play in that arena, you have to expect significant rises and declines over short periods.

As a holder of quite a bit of a gold mutual fund (USAGX), I'm sensitive to these drops. But I still believe we're in a gold secular bull market that has several years to run. I don't have a target price in mind, however, just watching the price.

Don 

Gina, personally, I don't care because I hold  10% as a diversifier for the long term. Doesn't matter what anyone thinks. The markets move no matter. Prec metals do well in those sudden bad news  scenarios and since we cannot see the future I cannot go what someone else thinks. Rich

hi

 thanks. I figure, tho, precious metals go down as interest rates rise, generally. i think rates eventually will rise and tho i think precious metals are good for a portion of one's portfolio i just hate to jump when they are topping out now. i guess in this insane market there are no educated guess. i took some profits from my oil and gas funds (two different ones) but i think they will have a longer run even with the recent dips.

gina  

"Doesn't matter what anyone thinks. The markets move no matter."

True - now what?

Markets do indeed move regardless of what any one person thinks. But what we think guides how we invest.

If your comment were to be taken at face value, no one would need to invest - or want to most likely. Why invest? Market prices will change no matter. I guess I found that to be a rather silly comment.

Don

Don, you didn't understand my point.I often see others ask for opinons on buying a sector. Is this a good time for one. My point, no matter what anyone says, it doesn't matter. Markets move independently. The point has nothing to do with why invest at all BUT to invest in many sectors to cover your bases. Areas of the market  do not move in concert with each other most of the time but over time, these sectors all have nice gains. My point, invest not on anyones guess but TO INVEST in many sectors  to cover your bases. Rich

Don, also" what we think "many times makes us poor investors. I always preach take the guesswork out of investing by having it all. the many areas of equites, fixed income, cash and sectors such as precious metals. Rich

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31359821558&a=147157864&listNum=1

The linked chart indicates that spot gold closed below a key support level today.  All indications are that it should drop to the $850 to $860 range next.  After that, the next support comes in at about $800.

uh

You're right, I did miss your point. If I see it now, you're saying invest in any sector at any time because it doesn't matter as long as you're in all sectors.That's certainly one way to look at it. But not one I would espouse.

First, individuals most likely do not have sufficient funds to invest in all sectors - period. (It's possible to come up with hundreds of "sectors".) And if you aren't in all sectors, which do you select and why? And if you are selective, don't you still have a "when to buy" decision? Second, what percentage allocation in each of these "sectors"? Third, buying anything after it's had a multi-year run up might not be prudent. Fourth, not all sectors snap back after a long bear market. So buying into (or holding on to) such a sector could be detrimental to your financial health - autos, airlines, and some geographical areas come to mind.

Therefore, buying into any sector just because you aren't covered there isn't a good plan to my mind.

The original poster was obviously a person who moves into/out of sectors - at least this sector. Therefore, was looking for advice on when - not if. Your comments, then, must have been an attempt to persuade the poster to change investment approaches?

Don

 

hi

 I made the post and do appreciate the various views. In addition to a few core funds, I have moved in out of sectors but I am not a very frequent trader, to be honest. I did get out of real estate and the right time. I took some profits but ouch not enough in my prasx. I did put some cash into fsemx but I'm going to pass on the precious metals. Maybe when my portfolio grows more (IF) we ever see some steady bull markets or even just a calm one again...

thanks,

gina