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How to meaure growth?
Anatole 07-07-2008, 11:29 PM | Post #2536686 |  9 Replies
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What is more objective way to measure growth? In M* stock search screen there is 5 years projected growth but I don't know what does that mean and how did they come to that number. In general one has to look at new stores opening for retailers, new clients for services and sales etc. But for that one has to look company by company.

What the more easier way one can use while screening for growth stocks other than P/E or P/S ratios because even value stocks during turn around (e.g. REITs some time in near future) will look similar to growth stock by that measure.

In many financial journals they mention E-beta and enterprise value, I could not find this as an option in any financial search screens. I guess one can do it manually but is there a easy way to do it?

 

 

 

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Re: How to meaure growth?
MasterPlan 07-08-2008, 3:40 AM | Post #2536699
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Anatole:

In M* stock search screen there is 5 years projected growth but I don't know what does that mean and how did they come to that number.

Here's how M* defines it:

"The five-year earnings growth forecast shows what the consensus is among analysts concerning the company's long-term growth rate. This information is provided by Reuters Estimates." 

In many financial journals they mention E-beta and enterprise value, I could not find this as an option in any financial search screens. I guess one can do it manually but is there a easy way to do it?

I don't think you need to get into EBITDA.  You can calculate it if you want, and do YOY comparisons, but you'd need analyst estimates if you wanted "projected" EBITDA growth.  And I don't see many analysts doing that.  And I don't see any advantage of using it over EPS growth.

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Re: How to meaure growth?
erryl 07-08-2008, 11:02 PM | Post #2537052
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There is no way to measure the future... there are only guesstimates of the future.

erryl

 

Re: How to meaure growth?
Anatole 07-09-2008, 12:09 PM | Post #2537183
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Thanks Erryl and Masterplan,

Does any stock search screen has PEG has an option? I don't think M* does.

 

 

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Re: How to meaure growth?
MasterPlan 07-09-2008, 12:26 PM | Post #2537186
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The best free stock-screener is considered to be the MSN deluxe screener.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/controls/finderpro.asp 

I've never used it, but I've heard it is by far the most powerful.

If you're interested in growth, you can do combinations like a certain percentage YOY growth combined with a projected 5-year growth, combined with a certain ROE, combined with a certain PEG. etc. etc.  Basically, whatever you want.

I've come across simpler ones that included PEG, but I haven't bookmarked them.  But if you google on "stock-screener", you'll likely come up with several you can try. 

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Re: How to meaure growth?
cgaros 07-09-2008, 12:32 PM | Post #2537188
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If you go to "Other Valuation Metrics" in the M* premium screener, PEG is there. 

That said, when you talk about growth your talking about the future, so you need some sort of analysis.  Unfortunately, analysts are pretty terrible at estimating growth.  They tend to get anchored to company projections, historical growth, and a slight optimistic bias (take a look at how many analysts/companies plan to increase earnings faster than the overall rate of growth in the industry/geography that they operate in).  They also tend to miss the truly exciting growth stories until it's too late to get in on them because they avoid small and risky stocks and only recommend something like AAPL or GOOG after everyone's on the bandwagon and a lot of growth has already happened. 

So I think if you want to be a serious growth investor, you really need to either find a growth manager that you trust, or analyze companies yourself until you find those with reasonable P/Es and growth prospects stronger than the market expects.  This is a good market to do so, because a lot of short-term earnings are getting beat up and P/Es are dropping even faster.     

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Re: How to meaure growth?
Anatole 07-09-2008, 12:53 PM | Post #2537193
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Thanks All:

I use M* premium screener. When I say growth I want to screen to see which are growth companies by certain measures. In terms of buy, I tend to rely on company by company basis rather than arbitrary growth criteria which one uses in a screener. Analysts reports and estimates are like get up in the morning and feel direction of wind blowing. One can see VMW. When stock was $125 average consensus was much higher than what is right now. There are so many other examples which one can use and so on.

Anatole

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Re: How to meaure growth?
MasterPlan 07-09-2008, 1:30 PM | Post #2537203
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cgaros:

That said, when you talk about growth your talking about the future, so you need some sort of analysis.  Unfortunately, analysts are pretty terrible at estimating growth. 

In my own view, it doesn't hurt to include analyst estimates since they help drive a stock's performance.  REGARDLESS of whether they are right or wrong.  When there are constant upward revisions of a stock's earnings potential, that tends to move the stock up.  So analysts may not be gods, but they do help move the market.

But that doesn't seem to be what the OP is after, so I guess it's moot at this point 

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Re: How to meaure growth?
erryl 07-25-2008, 3:44 PM | Post #2543364
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AAII has one, but it isn't free.

erryl

 

Re: How to meaure growth?
Aalan88 07-25-2008, 4:41 PM | Post #2543391
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Anatole:

Thanks Erryl and Masterplan,

Does any stock search screen has PEG has an option? I don't think M* does.

FINVIZ.COM has a fine screener that includes PEG, all free. It doesn't cover OTC, though, just the three major US exchanges. 

--AAlan 

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