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Week of July 7
Racqueteer 07-06-2008, 4:33  | Post #2536116 |  32 Replies
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Everything suggests down, but we're at or near support.  Not much panic; it looks like people think we can hold here.  Can we bounce (even short-term), or will we break lower instead and maybe get that panic selling some say we need to have?  Maybe we'll gather ourselves and move sideways for the rest of the summer?  I think $150 oil would break support, and we could see it soon.

My prediction: Barring really bad news ($150+ oil, for example), I think we could see a little rally this week, but I think people will sell into it and return us to a neutral position by the middle of the following week.  If we DO get that rally, I think I'm going to try to lighten my foreign positions a little.  Not buying more just yet; I want to see if the support level holds.

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Racqueteer
rascfw 07-06-2008, 5:28  | Post #2536130
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If we DO get that rally, I think I'm going to try to lighten my foreign positions a little.  Not buying more just yet; I want to see if the support level holds.

We're all watching our markets slide but, since we're in the US, I assumed that you meant our domestic markets' support levels. I don't understand... which market(s) are you focused on? You finish with your comment about selling into a rally --but selling your foreign positions. Can you please clarify?  Are you referring to domestic or international markets? Or all of them? If you're selling your foreign into a relief rally, are you also selling your domestic equities, too?

For the moment, I am watching to see how things pan out. I really don't want to sell positions as a defensive knee-jerk reaction but, then again, everyone's gloominess is beginning to depress me. I also don't like losing all of my YTD gains in a single month.

Regards,
Susan

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Re: Week of July 7
chipmunk 07-06-2008, 5:33  | Post #2536131
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I agree that we could see a little rally this week. I think we'll have a dead cat bounce after a long holiday weekend, where gas consumption historically rises. So, when folks return from holiday this weekend, we should see the classic fall in oil. Maybe 140 USD/barrel for a couple of weeks, then back up towards 200 by the end of the calendar year (assuming the US dollar continues to fall versus the euro, which is responsible for roughly 3/4 of the rise in oil prices -- the remaining 1/4 being oil speculation and increased oil demand). That, in turn, should cause the markets to rise short-term. JMO, but anything could happen in this wild ride we call the global financial markets.

The dour Scots
rascfw 07-06-2008, 5:39  | Post #2536135
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Because I think that this also applies in a way to what you are talking about, Racqueteer, I decided to bring over what I posted in HO # 2535565 (Santa Cruz's RBS conversation). More doom 'n gloom from the other side of the Atlantic.  I'd love to hear what you think about RBS's "sky is falling" attitude... and then what their readers say in response, Racqueteer.

(My post from HO # 2535565 contains a link to the Telegraph article)

I'm sorry, but I hate being "half-empty" and just can't and won't go there.
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Santa Cruz, I pulled what I felt were seven (7) very interesting observations posted by Telegraph readers... from your link to its 6/19/08 articleRBS issues global stock and credit crash alert:
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Just an observation: The same people who was rescued by the FED and the other central banks through the discount windows, are now being allowed, using FED funds, to restore their cash by effectively setting the price on the futures etc. markets in oil and commodities and main street pays the price for it through inflation. It is also remarkable that when ever these investment banks are heavily into a given investment say morgages, stocks, oil, grain, gold or any other commodety the FED no longer calls it inflation but a bubble or CPI - all designed for you to take your eyes off the ball! Its NOT a bubble and what is CPI anyway ? Its INFLATION!
Think about that the next time you hear a speach by Bernanke, Triche etc. *LOL*
Posted by prismatic on June 24, 2008 6:00 AM
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Look, when somebody is trying to short the markets and getting their brains beat in because they are on the wrong side of the trade they run to the press with the most irresponsible comments they can make in hopes of getting out without getting crushed by a rally. If Bank of Scotland was such a great predictor of economic conditions, how come they how come they had writedowns of 12 billion dollars? Guess they just didn't see that one coming. I rest my case. My advice: Sell Bank of Scotland and buy Goldman Sachs.
Posted by Lordrobot on June 23, 2008 9:20 AM
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Of course if I was short of cash and you had millions of customers with billions of investments in shares who could effectively loan you the cash at say 5% when you are normally paying say 6.0%, I would be frightening everyone into thinking there would be a crash.
Posted by David SYkes on June 21, 2008 1:45 PM
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I wonder how much money they have in short selling the market, always suspicious.

In any event, i too believe (for different reasons) world dependence on the U.S. currency as a dominant force is ending. In combination with major inflationary pressures on the world most energy intensive economy, and a competitor for energy resources that the U.S. cannot begin to compete against long term, (namely china) lets face it, with labor the 10th of the cost of the indistrializd world, emerging economies can afford the energy bill to devlop much better than the western economies, end result, the interim period will see a flight to real assets. Namely commodities.

the3 commodity boom has only just begun. See you stock market investors later, so long suckers.
Posted by
rob s on June 21, 2008 12:00 AM
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if the rbs experts are so good at predictating things, how come they are now going cap in hand to shore up their creaky balance sheet BY A RIGHTS ISSUE, AND MORE?
Posted by R.DOWN on June 20, 2008 2:16 PM
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The Big Four names which keep appearing are Alliance and Leicester, Bradford and Bingley, HBOS and good old RBS who, between them seem to have cornered the market both in the spectacular scale of their failures and the transparency of their lying attempts to cover them up. Perhaps we can therefore be forgiven for not taking anything they say at face value and asking whether this report is just a softening up measure so that later in the year RBS will be able to blame the Fed, the ECB or even God for something it knows is already festering in its own sty.
Posted by eric campbell on June 18, 2008 7:40 AM
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Anyone whom has keenly followed the financial news over the last eighteen months, will be struck by the fact that the experts seem to be constantly re evaluating the situation on a weekly basis.We have gone from mild slowdown,soft housing landing,small blip in unemployment etc,to quite disturbing possibilities.
Ambrose,and Jeff seem to be the only ones consistent-and accurate.
Me-I take my advice from some of those very clever amateurs from house price crash,whom were once laughed at,but have been absolutely remarkable in their predictions over the last two years.
Whats their general synopsis now?
BIG SLUMP.
Posted by Anthony Lynton-Liar on June 18, 2008 7:35 AM
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Regards,
Susan
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P.S. It also appears to me that, similar to Blackstone and a few other hedge-embroiled companies, RBS Royal Bank of Scotland appears to have IPO'd --IOW, went public-- about 18 months ago. Perhaps this is RBS's way of clearing its own balance sheets of the subprime effects? It seems that RBS might be predicting its own additional subprime writeoffs in the next quarter. If so, I'd say RBS --and, therefore, all of the other financials
--should be a really good buy by yearend.
Re: Week of July 7
galderm 07-06-2008, 8:48  | Post #2536186
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Tomorrow, I'm hoping to pick up IWM long after the open.  Of course, Monday morning staff meeting hangs as a dark cloud over that plan.

For the week, I want to get short QQQQ after an early upswing. 

Gordon

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Re: Week of July 7
uncleharley 07-06-2008, 9:05  | Post #2536198
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I'm expecting the week to be flat to perhaps a bit negative.  I expect sector rotation into defensive sectors to continue and I will put in a limit buy order on a favorite utility, just to keep my hand in the game.

uh

uncleharley
rascfw 07-07-2008, 5:38 AM | Post #2536246
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I expect sector rotation into defensive sectors to continue...

UH, can you be a little more specific and list what you define as defensive sectors? I'm guessing when I say these...  utilities, consumer goods, consumer services, healthcare and industrial materials.

FWIW, I am buying more EEB Claymore/BNY BRIC and DIA DJIA Diamonds ---and watching the rest. With Rick's 401k, I will add to --and equal-weight at the same time-- his MPSIX (S&P400 Midcap), PEPSX (emerging mkt) and PIIIX (diversified international) weekly or biweekly.

Regards,
Susan

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Re: Week of July 7
Limoman 07-07-2008, 6:47 AM | Post #2536252
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Been thru something like this back in 00-early 03' yrs.. 

> More Buying Opportunites Lie ahead

> Lower Volumne Trading till after Mid Aug. makes Markets more Volatile

> I'm buying per what my Funds worse 3 mos % Losses were in past 8 yrs..

and just Hope for the best that we get a Recovery by 4th qtr or 2009 at the latest

> And hope they Repeat as they did in 00-03' again..

With Bonds not carrying the way this time around? Were else is there to go?

Make 3-4% on CD's and then when Recovery comes, miss out on making +30%?

No Thanks

 

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Re: Week of July 7
kerryvan 07-07-2008, 6:59 AM | Post #2536255
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pacific rim is up,  maybe good news from G8.

and the foreign buyer are coming...

Fresenius Agrees to Buy APP for Up to $4.6 Billion

InBev deal?

and china is buying technology they want..

China Oilfield Agrees to Buy Awilco for $2.49 Billion

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Re: uncleharley
uncleharley 07-07-2008, 8:06 AM | Post #2536266
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The S&P sectors that I was referring to are Utilities, Healthcare, & Consuner Staples.  Utilities have been doing well for a long time as a sector, but healthcare and consumer staples have just begun a cyclical upswing.  As to specific companies, I am not finding a lot that excite me, however I have a limit order in for some EXC.  They own a lot of nuke's and have a very pretty chart.

  I am staying away from b