Yes it is, and thanks so much for your reply.  I'm glad you're back.

I have been doing some work on my spreadsheets trying to confirm my planning assumptions and Excel formulas.  After reading a recent post on the Vanguard Diehards forum I wondered about my approach to dividend projections for the future.  That got me to thinking about the differences between AMECX and CAIBX.

Again, so good to hear from you.  I was getting a little worried.

Playbook. 

playbook:

Yes it is, and thanks so much for your reply.  I'm glad you're back.

You are welcome.  Had to take a break for awhile due to illness in the family :( 

playbook:

After reading a recent post on the Vanguard Diehards forum I wondered about my approach to dividend projections for the future. 

Which thread? 

Take a look at their 10 year dividend history on the AF web site if you haven't already.  I find it helpful.

http://www.americanfunds.com/funds/historical/distributions.htm?fundGroupNumber=12&fundClassNumber=0&year=2008

http://www.americanfunds.com/funds/historical/distributions.htm?fundGroupNumber=6&fundClassNumber=0&year=2008&dispatch=&doDistributions=Show+distributions

http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/thread/2536449.aspx

http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/thread/2535524.aspx

The second link was the discussion on Vanguard that got me to thinking about my future income projections.  My spreadsheets project cashflows for every year through 2042 and show that income will be more than adequate throughout the plan period.  Dividend projections from AMECX and CAIBX are an important part of those projections, but are the most difficult to forecast.  Social Security, pensions, and annuities are easy to forecast.  Bonds or bond funds' coupons are not as easy to predict 20,30 years into the future unless one wants to buy long bonds, which I don't, but I feel pretty good about using 5% average coupon on the bonds.  I keep the NAV constant on the bond funds and the 5% coupon, so inflation erodes that income terribly over time.  I use the current dividend % for AMECX and CAIBX for all years in the plan, but increase the NAV by 2% each year.  Not compounded, just average annual increase.

The first link was started today by TaylorZR.   I think TaylorZR likes CAIBX but I'm not 100% sure.  It seems Bilperk for sure does not.  They both do their DD and apparently have many years of investment experience.  Since CAIBX will be a significant holding for me, Bilperk's response gives me pause.

Your wrong..........

Bill loves caibx,............................... wishes he owned it.

=====================

It would just 'cost ' him too much to make the change he needs to make to own it....

'CoSt' here needs to be defined....:-)

playbook:

Dividend projections from AMECX and CAIBX are an important part of those projections, but are the most difficult to forecast.  I use the current dividend % for AMECX and CAIBX for all years in the plan, but increase the NAV by 2% each year.  Not compounded, just average annual increase.

I use the actual dividend history that I linked to above to estimate my CAIBX and AMECX future dividend income, not the % yield since that is based on NAV, which varies.

playbook:

I think TaylorZR likes CAIBX but I'm not 100% sure. 

I think TaylorZR loves CAIBX, lol!  I love it, too, and am going to buy more soon.  Maybe this week.

playbook:

 

It seems Bilperk for sure does not.  They both do their DD and apparently have many years of investment experience.  Since CAIBX will be a significant holding for me, Bilperk's response gives me pause.

I don't think Bilperk doesn't like CAIBX - he just doesn't see it as better than DODBX and maybe even worse given the load.  If you post to him, he may have more to say on this topic.