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Dodbx disappoints as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 4:13 PM | Post #2536449 |  59 Replies
0  

https://www.dodgeandcox.com/performance_HD.asp

Does anyone think the next 20 years will be like the last 20, two decades where minimal income growth in balanced funds could be subsidized by oodles and oodles and oodles and oodles of easily found capital gains, and mainly from US Equities and US bonds......?

Both the 'Timing' and the 'Portfolios' of Standard Managed US Balanced funds are wrong for today in comparison to the very few managed products specifically designed to grow an income stream.

===================================

What does this charting tell you?

 

   DODBX   DODBX    CAIBX    CAIBX    VWELX    VWELX
   Div ($$)    CGs ($)    Div ($$)    CGs ($$)     Div ($$)   CGs ($$)
1988546.87149.74546.480.00618.14373.47
1989581.13234.44586.180.00680.62400.36
1990609.39111.11630.540.00697.150.00
1991598.1698.56667.910.00662.64158.76
1992592.4423.97705.280.00657.39111.90
1993572.85363.60742.6456.05648.83267.99
1994628.0884.21782.7346.87632.3321.56
1995769.00299.84822.86235.10698.10201.51
1996713.90193.74872.22347.94771.68808.07
1997805.011186.46917.15781.27850.071191.60
1998854.091432.98979.101410.90903.891951.76
1999898.522017.741038.63820.25989.021301.36
20001094.734089.341108.94518.61978.841353.90
20011070.531025.261175.46660.18915.301165.79
2002965.10451.831181.64300.04845.590.00
2003863.47348.521152.58101.47770.090.00
2004841.47883.811068.55529.86885.86915.05
2005988.50709.271269.83413.29933.341010.09
20061199.631746.861353.13709.941048.781498.25
20071344.202995.821583.281484.321205.711589.75
2008330.83807.83334.130.00267.980.00
CGs$19,254.93$8,416.09$14,321.17
Dividends$16,867.90$19,519.26$16,661.35

 

      All Dividends             All CGs          Value as of
              Spent          Reinvested          6/20/2008
DODBX$16,867.90$19,254.93$43,973.58
CAIBX$19,519.26$8,416.09$36,670.90
VWELX$16,661.35$14,321.17$36,013.74

 

If we're looking for an extended period of time in retirement that will produce fewer CGs, we're looking at the hand writing on the wall for the poor potential income growth performance of standard balanced funds. In our future you are going to have a much greater chance of needing to sell shares of these things to eat in retirement......

t

 

 

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TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 4:46 PM | Post #2536469
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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
bilperk 07-07-2008, 6:05 PM | Post #2536519
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No disappointment here.  DODBX dropped its payout this quarter by 2 cents.  Big deal.  Bond payouts fluctuate and always have.

As for CGs, DODBX paid a CG in March that was 79% larger than the one it paid in March of 07. (it has so many oodles of CGs that it has to pay them twice per year)

The chart shows me the same thing it did the last time I looked at it;  that CAIBX is a laggard when it comes to CGs and that the total of dividends and CGs of the two funds over the chart period shows CAIBX trailing by 22.7% with no reason to believe it will change over the next 20 year period.

Why will CGs end?  DODBX has a history over the last 20 years of producing 6% dividends and CG's.

CAIBX and TIBIX are averaging the same approx. price decline as DODBX (-11.44% YTD), while VWELX is down only 5.5%.

I think I'll trust Wellington Management and D&C management team over Taylor's crystal ball.

best,

Bill

Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 6:18 PM | Post #2536532
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2 cents?

Did you ever hear about something called 'income percentage loss' .....:-)

Is the truth of this a little overwhelming......:-)

Dodbx has depended too long on on too many potential CGs and they are fleeting away quickly.

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The chart shows:  The chart shows ........you don't get it!

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CAIBX and TIBIX are continuing to 'increase their payouts' (DUH!), and that is the thing you should be thinking about!

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Taylor's Crystal Ball:

Don't trust Vwelx to create a growing income stream for you without  having to eat some part of your own portfolio for lunch.

Believe it,..... and those 'managed payout funds', are going down the same road...

 ------------------------------------------------------------

t

 

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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
bilperk 07-07-2008, 7:03 PM | Post #2536562
1  

Are we looking at the same chart.  Fleeting?  LOL.  CGs have grown every year since 2003.

Anything to support your claims?  Nope.  And you make them after DODBX just raised its CG over last March by 70+%.

Chicken Little?

You just don't get it, Taylor.

60% VWINX and 40% VWELX gives me a current yield of 4.3% + plus plenty of growth for inflation.

Funds that yield a retirees complete expense needs don't have to increase their payout when they continue to pay good CGs so you can buy more shares.  The payout increases because the shares increase.

Wellesley and Wellington already have 2% realized CGs this year just waiting to be distributed in Dec.  They may well have more by the end of the year.

You just can't accept the fact that there are many ways to fund a retirement successfully.

Stick with what you know.  You are embarrassing yourself with this line of nonsense.

best,

Bill

 

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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 7:15 PM | Post #2536570
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60% Vwinx (with big CG Inflation fighting potential?????) with rates as low as they are?....:-)

Pie in the sky, Bill.....

Pie in the sky.... 

Funds that depend MORE on increasing CGs than Increasing Income will have  MORE problems creating as many new shares in the future as they have in the past.........

=========================================== 

Really.....

t

 

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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
Gregory 07-07-2008, 7:49 PM | Post #2536595
1  

In all fairness, Taylor, did Bill make a remark similar to yours when CAIBX cut its dividend by 7%?

 

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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
justin 07-07-2008, 8:06 PM | Post #2536606
0  

What's up, T?

You know that D&C = QUALITY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Justin
 

Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 8:11 PM | Post #2536609
0  

Greg, this thread is about the problem with standard balanced funds being sold as income growers without having to sell off shares in the future .....

t

 

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Re: Dodbx disappoints, as it lowers it's Dividend in June!
TaylorZR 07-07-2008, 8:19 PM | Post #2536612
0  

Never said these things were not quality. They are just not going to be able to continue to do what they were not designed to do as easily in the future as they have in the past.

I take it you got an email from Bill....::-).:-)

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