dbcooper:

Very bearish outlook.....

Ya... and I thought I was a bear. 

Santa Cruz:

Royal Bank of Scotland has a similar view as reported by FT:

“The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared,” said Bob Janjuah, the bank’s credit strategist.

A report by the bank’s research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

“The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets,” he said.”

Happy 4th.... 

Santa,

The Mattress Fund (MATRX) was made for times like these. My family may have been a bunch a farmers, but they knew what to do when times got tough.

Just checked out MATRX since i never heard of it.  Yahoo finance says it gets one star from morningstar.  How about something like TR Price Cap Appreciation Fund?

And like RBS I believe we're a lot closer to a crash than we are to recovery.  I don't see sustainable recovery for at least a couple of years or longer.

Peace and love,

Flakey 

What is it with these Scots?!  There's lots of gloom and doom around, but they seem to find the darkest cloud available!  ;-)

Peace and love,

Flakey 

SPX chart

See 070308 Typical Selloff.jpg @

http://cid-e664b8cfbe1f7023.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/Nonsense%20Spreadsheet
 

How long it will take (approx) depends on how low you think we will go.  Right now we are right on track (pink dot 070308). 

SPX 1050 (selloff ratio 0.67)  would put us near April of next year.  More disconcerting is that the selloff would be so great ( >30%), it would also qualify as another Primary Crash Cycle (2424585).

And guess what, we get to go through this all over again.

Can't Happen??  It already did in the '68 / '73 crash sequence.

Gordon

Over the past ten years MATRX shows virtually no gain, i. e., DEAD MONEY!; and THAT for a disgusting 2.15% expense ratio!?  This is a sucker's fund; all the farmers I've ever known are a lot smarter than THAT.  You'd be better off in an FDIC protected CD or a government backed money market fund.

PRCWX is an outstanding bear market fund showing gains during all of 2000, 2001 and 2002 while EASILY OUTPERFORMING MATRX for a fraction of that egregious expense ratio over the last decade.  You could hardly do better.  Ignore the outperformance of  CGMFX during the last bear market as it's not likely to be repeated due to the current crash of the real estate and housing sectors.  During that period real estate and housing were booming and therefore CGMFX's last bear market performance is not likely to be repeated.  It's an inherently risky fund anyway in any market environment.

Peace and love,

Flakey 

Given that these are the folks who exceeded Barclays' already excessive bid for ABN Amro's motley collection of slightly iffy banking assets, should we really be trusting RBS? the irony of it is that if they're right and the market really crashes, and if they also have to raise additional capital to bolster their questionable financial health, they'll be in trouble.

SPX chart

See 070308 Typical Selloff.jpg @

http://cid-e664b8cfbe1f7023.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/Nonsense%20Spreadsheet

 Gorden,

nice chart are the days on the chart trading days or calender days.

 

 

 

 

 

Calendar days