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Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
markvran 06-04-2008, 11:20 AM | Post #2524605 |  19 Replies
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First, I'm a newbie and know very little about bond funds. I'm looking for a safe spot to place a significant amount of cash for my mother who is over 80 years old. The cash is in the prime money market fund right now and I was looking for something that's still relatively risk free but could return something more than the 2% that prime now offers. Here's where I am confused.  The Long Term Treasury Bond Fund - seemingly as secure as you can get - is now over 4% return and in fact consistently does better than plain money market accounts (close to 7% avg over the last ten years). Plus I believe this is tax free at the federal level. Why doesn't every park their cash in this account rather than in other money market or short term bond funds? Thanks.
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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Lili.. 06-04-2008, 11:47 AM | Post #2524627
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markvran:
First, I'm a newbie and know very little about bond funds. I'm looking for a safe spot to place a significant amount of cash for my mother who is over 80 years old. The cash is in the prime money market fund right now and I was looking for something that's still relatively risk free but could return something more than the 2% that prime now offers. Here's where I am confused.  The Long Term Treasury Bond Fund - seemingly as secure as you can get - is now over 4% return and in fact consistently does better than plain money market accounts (close to 7% avg over the last ten years). Plus I believe this is tax free at the federal level. Why doesn't every park their cash in this account rather than in other money market or short term bond funds? Thanks.

I think we need more info about your mother's finances and health status to help you with this decision.  How healthy is she and how likely is it that she will need assisted living, nursing home care?  How much is her net worth and what is her asset allocation?  How much does she need to live on, how much does she receive in social security?

Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Pat Morgan 06-04-2008, 12:31 PM | Post #2524645
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I would not call the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury relatively risk free if in risk you include changes in share price.

An item in the "Who Should Not Invest" list in Vanguard's Who Should Invest web page for the fund is:"Investors unwilling to accept significant fluctuations in share price".  An item in the "Who Should Invest" is: "Investors seeking a high and stable level of interest income".

The fund is a good choice for those who plan to spend the income distributions of the fund and are not concerned about changes in the fund account value.

The distributions of the fund are taxed as income at the federal level.  The income distributions are not subject to state and local income taxes.

Everyone does not park their cash in a long-term bond fund because not everyone is unconcerned about changes in share price.

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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
duanej 06-04-2008, 2:06 PM | Post #2524686
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The next step up in risk from a money market fund is a short-term investment-grade bond fund. After that is an intermediate-term investment-grade bond fund. Either one of these should give a higer current yield than a MMF today, and with modest risk/volatility.

As Pat has already mentioned, long term debt can drop a lot in price when interest rates move up. For example, the share price (NAV) for VUSTX fell from about 11 to 9 during the rate increases of 1994. That's about a 20% decline in price.

Regards,

Duane

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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
markvran 06-04-2008, 2:24 PM | Post #2524696
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Another elementary question. I'm trying to understand the distinction between yield and share price that you're referring to. Isn't it true that if you're reinvesting all distributions and making no withdrawals then it doesn't matter if you get income from a fund or not.  That is, a 10% total return on a fund with significant distributions is no different than investing in another fund with a 10% total return that has no distributions? You come out the same investing in either one - before taxes.
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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Pat Morgan 06-04-2008, 3:10 PM | Post #2524714
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markvran:
Another elementary question. I'm trying to understand the distinction between yield and share price that you're referring to. Isn't it true that if you're reinvesting all distributions and making no withdrawals then it doesn't matter if you get income from a fund or not.  That is, a 10% total return on a fund with significant distributions is no different than investing in another fund with a 10% total return that has no distributions? You come out the same investing in either one - before taxes.

Yes, with a fund that had a 10% total return the value of an account in that fund would have increased 10% if distributions were reinvested but no other transactions were made.

During 1999, the value of a Vanguard Long-Term Treasury fund account with distributions reinvested but no other transactions would have declined 8.66%.  If the
money had been the Vanguard Treasury Money Market fund, the account would have increased 4.55%, a difference of 13.21% in favor of the money market fund.  There are other years when the difference would be in favor of the long-term fund.

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Consider what it holds
grabiner 06-04-2008, 7:14 PM | Post #2524830
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A Treasury bond is a promise by the government to pay you a certain amount of income every year, and to pay back the principal at the end.  For example, a 20-year bond worth $10,000 might pay $450 every year for the next 20 years, and return the $10,000 after 20 years. 

Now, if you hold such a bond, and inflation rises, the $450 payments will be less valuable.  And if interest rates rise, a bond paying $450 a year will be worth less than $10,000, so that you cannot sell the bond for its original price.  (The bond fund, which holds lots of bonds like this, does sell them before maturity, as it prefers to hold only long-term bonds and thus sells them when they become short-term to buy new long-term bonds.)  These are the risks of holding long-term bonds, which is why they usually have higher yields than short-term bonds.

You might look at Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, which has a yield of 1% above the CPI, instead of a fixed-dollar yield.  It thus reduces the inflation risk; if prices double, the distributions will also double.  (It doesn't eliminate the risk, since your mother is not an average consumer; the prices of the things she buys may rise more or less than the CPI.)  It is still vulnerable to fluctuations in value; it lost 3.04% in its worst quarter and failed to keep up with inflation in 2005-2006 because of rising rates.  Thus it is not perfectly safe, but it is a reasonable place to park money which is being spent over a fairly long time. 

Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
chipmunk 06-04-2008, 8:12 PM | Post #2524859
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duanej:
As Pat has already mentioned, long term debt can drop a lot in price when interest rates move up. For example, the share price (NAV) for VUSTX fell from about 11 to 9 during the rate increases of 1994. That's about a 20% decline in price.

Duane is correct. In fact, the values of long-term bonds can fluctuate substantially even when interest rates are not moving up. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (VUSTX) fell a whopping 0.88% just today.

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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
markvran 06-04-2008, 9:13 PM | Post #2524874
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Thanks a ton to everybody. I learned a lot. It seems that in an environment like this one, where both inflation and interest rates will be edging upwards, longer term bonds is not the right idea. In fact I noticed two other threads that are going on right now ('Emergency Funds in Wrong Fund' and 'Is Inflation Protected Bond Fund a Good Vehicle to Park Cash') that makes it sound iffy for even Short Term Bond Funds and the Inflation Protected Bond Fund. What to do, what to do. Maybe a money market isn't the most horrible choice.
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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Taylor Larimore 06-04-2008, 10:09 PM | Post #2524884
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Hi Mark:

Bonds are primarily for safety and income in a portfolio. 

Vanguard's Long-Term Treasury Bond Fund declined (-12.3%)  during 1987.

With that kind of risk, an investor has a much greater expected return (especially after taxes) with a stock fund.

This is the reason most Bogleheads prefer short- or intermediate-term bond funds.

Best wishes.
Taylor

 

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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
WOODJ 06-05-2008, 10:36 AM | Post #2525008
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Here is some reading for you.

Bond Fund Basics by Sue Stevens http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=135208&_QSBPA=Y&fsection=Comm3

Investing in Bonds (Vanguard) Be sure to click on the link there to the Main Risks for investing in bonds. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/planningeducation/education/PEdIESBCInvInBondsContent.jsp 

Money 101...read the bond section http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/money101/

I am in my mid 70s.  I would not have any of my money in long term bonds (except that part of Total Bond Market)  because of their risk.  I would rather have what little risk I am willing to take in stocks. 

Jim

 

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Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Sirschnitz 06-05-2008, 10:56 AM | Post #2525017
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Mark, have you investigated on-line savings accounts?  There are several on-line banks that offer significantly higher rates than money markets, and they are safe.  The on-line savings accounts that I recommend are FDIC insured (up to $100k per account).  For example,  HSBC currently is offering 3.5% through August.  www.hsbcdirect.com   Shop around, you may find even better rates.  I recommend choosing from among the larger on-line banks, like HSBC, and only accounts with FDIC insurance.

BTW, I have had personal experience with an on-line savings account for a couple of years now, and although the interest rate may vary from quarter to quarter, it has always been consistently above brokerage MM rates. 

Regards,
Russ

 

Re: Why not Long Term Treasury Bond Fund??
Lili.. 06-05-2008, 10:59 AM | Post #2525020
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WOODJ:

I am in my mid 70s.  I would not have any of my money in long term bonds (except that part of Total Bond Market)  because of their risk.  I would rather have what little risk I am willing to take in stocks. 

Jim

I think this is smart.

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