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Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
capecod 06-13-2008, 11:59 AM | Post #2528093 |  5 Replies
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I've only seen it in small print squibs: The Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, part of the FHLB system, a US Gov't Agency, had its (swap/derivative) counterparty rating downgraded yesterday.  While it's still extremely high, this is one of those overlooked mini-events that tells a really big story.  Don't look for our friends at Fed to do anything silly like raise rates anytime soon, and don't anticipate any near-term halt in bad credit news.  We're only about half way thru the butt-end of this credit cycle.

Dick

 

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Re: Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
crack 06-13-2008, 12:19 PM | Post #2528186
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wow...

 if you could expand on that in any way, it would be greatly appreciated, as its just plain Russian to me.

i'm trying...

Re: Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
capecod 06-13-2008, 1:39 PM | Post #2528207
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Sure....agencies of our government, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Fed Home Loan Banks, some others, are generally considered bullet-proof AAA credits because, although the Federal Govt does NOT EXPLICITLY guarantee their creditworthiness with "the full faith and credit of the United States," markets have agreed for years that the US has a moral obligation to make good on these agency financial obligations and IMPLICTLY guarantees them. (Aside: Ginnie Mae - GNMA - is one agency that IS specifically backed by the full faith and credit of the US.)  Anyhow....in my opinion, and I'm rather certain in the opinion of some major institutions, ANY downgrade from AAA, which suggests there is even a remote chance FHLB will be unable to service obligations, is extraordinary and troubling news.  If this institution is stressed, it's likely a sign that the credit difficulties working their way through our financial system are far from over.  Under such circumstances, raising rates "to fight inflation" might well exacerbate the credit difficulties and extend our economy's low-growth-no-growth-negative growth period.  (Further aside: commodity price inflation is particularly difficult for central bankers to deal with. All they can do is restrain credit growth / slow the economy.  Until they can pump extra crude oil or grow more corn and soybeans, their ability to impact commodity inflation is indirect at best.

D

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Re: Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
Aalan88 06-13-2008, 3:03 PM | Post #2528249
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Great observation, Dick. 

What defensive measures might you suggest? I'm already pretty well hedged against falling dollar (much too well, lately!), but I've also stacked my bond holdings against rising domestic interest rates (i.e., nothing in Treasuries) rather than against rising interest rates in other currencies/markets. That might be the wrong balance of risks, now?

--AAlan 

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Re: Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
crack 06-13-2008, 3:46 PM | Post #2528269
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thanks!

that should do it once i read it a few times.

Re: Nearly Invisible Credit Warning
bubbygator 06-13-2008, 10:15 PM | Post #2528383
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