If you don't like the CPI numbers, see what the market is pricing government bonds and you'll get a fair idea of what the inflation rate is.

Don't like that, look at 30 year mortgage rates. Banks stay in business by staying ahead of inflation.

Don't like that, keep good records and see how your cost of subsistence has risen/fallen. Don't include any luxury items. And adjust for seasonal use of energy, etc.

 

Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index.  You can argue about CNPI, but it as fair a measure as we have here in the US.

Of course, if you commute by car for 2-hours per day, your personal rate of inflation is much higher than what might be measured by CNPI.

 Here's an one year chart of the CNPI showing 3.9% inflation since May 27, 2007.

 

 

Re? maybe, then again Maybe Not

IMC? I adjust every yr per what my Actual Costs were the previous yr + 4%!

eg: So far this yr? My Budget is + 7% in costs vs last yr..

There are so many 'Spin Dr.'s" in the Gov't and from other places, You can't tell without a Score Card anymore..

For the past 10 yrs? I've averaged + 6.8% apy

Consuming the same in each catagory..

3% Inflation? yeah , right.. in the 60-70's maybe...Not anymore..

Few responses:

Okay, so maybe I'm guessing a bit here, and I double-counted with the oil thing, but I'm trying to get a ballpark figure. If we just look at dollar devaluation and nothing else, we can still say inflation is running at least 5% YTD on the conservative side, or roughly 12% on an annual basis. That is still tough.

I agree with Limoman, in that my personal annual inflation rate this year is above the CPI. Didn't someone come up with some simple way of calculating inflation, like a basket of commonly purchased items?

How about this: (1) a mortgage payment based on the median home price (this may skew inflation down right now, and may be why the CPI is so low) or average rent payment, (2) an average monthly utilities bill for a median home (fixed size), and (3) a basket of typical (fixed list) groceries for a month.

Limoman:

Re? maybe, then again Maybe Not

IMC? I adjust every yr per what my Actual Costs were the previous yr + 4%!

eg: So far this yr? My Budget is + 7% in costs vs last yr..

There are so many 'Spin Dr.'s" in the Gov't and from other places, You can't tell without a Score Card anymore..

For the past 10 yrs? I've averaged + 6.8% apy

Consuming the same in each catagory..

3% Inflation? yeah , right.. in the 60-70's maybe...Not anymore..

I have no doubt your personal inflation rate has gone up 7% this year, nor do I doubt you cannot project that onto everyone else. Anyone who owns big rigs probably has experienced a higher rate than that, and the last few years anyone who owns real estate and timberland have experienced phenomenal growth in property taxes in many locales. 

I'm impressed you keep good records. It's awfully important to know how much  you have to increase your income to keep ahead of it. 

chipmunk:

Few responses:

Okay, so maybe I'm guessing a bit here, and I double-counted with the oil thing, but I'm trying to get a ballpark figure. If we just look at dollar devaluation and nothing else, we can still say inflation is running at least 5% YTD on the conservative side, or roughly 12% on an annual basis. That is still tough.

I agree with Limoman, in that my personal annual inflation rate this year is above the CPI. Didn't someone come up with some simple way of calculating inflation, like a basket of commonly purchased items?

How about this: (1) a mortgage payment based on the median home price (this may skew inflation down right now, and may be why the CPI is so low) or average rent payment, (2) an average monthly utilities bill for a median home (fixed size), and (3) a basket of typical (fixed list) groceries for a month.

Why not just survey 80,000 American households each month? Oh, that's right, that's what the CPI is based on. 

 

Link on the phony govt numbers is courtesy of Bob Uphaus from another thread...

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Economy1may08.htm

Let me add that the CPI number has been revised and re-revised to make changes in how it is calculated. For example, people will switch from steak to ground beef, will spend less on entertainment, and will spend less on fuel as prices go up. It is hard to figure out exactly what CPI means.

pining4Lenore:

Link on the phony govt numbers is courtesy of Bob Uphaus from another thread...

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Economy1may08.htm

Interesting...this link implies, based on the original methodology, that inflation is running 12% annually in 2008, which is exactly what you get if you calculate the devaluation of the US dollar.

Here's my estimate for "real" goods/services inflation: CPI +1% (plus or minus 2%).  The numbers from Shadow Stats, Kevin Phillips are implausibly high.  Their data would imply that the U.S. has been in a non-stop recession for at least the last decade.  I like to share in the gloom and doom, too, but that is just not a realistic representation.

Matt, according to your informations, the inflation YTD is 8% (not 11%).  You forget one division by 2 (the first 1/2, I suppose.

chipmunk:

Let me add that the CPI number has been revised and re-revised to make changes in how it is calculated. For example, people will switch from steak to ground beef, will spend less on entertainment, and will spend less on fuel as prices go up. It is hard to figure out exactly what CPI means.

pining4Lenore:

Link on the phony govt numbers is courtesy of Bob Uphaus from another thread...

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Pollyanna-Creep-Economy1may08.htm

Interesting...this link implies, based on the origina