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Currency exchange
amanjr 05-23-2008, 7:10 PM | Post #2521107 |  5 Replies
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By diverting from the true Vanguard -Boglehead theory of  Index funds and stay the course edict, would it be out of the realm to consider playing the foreign currency exchanges and invest in the Prudent Global Income fund or the T.Rowe Price International bond fund?

The market in it's present state viewed by Bogleheads has been stay in the United states and don't invest in foreign bond markets where there is less transparency then home. As a result, bond funds aren't offered at Vanguard which gives merit to stepping out of the true Boglehead view and going elsewhere where the are offered.

I got beat up by Russell two months ago for suggesting the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) could be a divergence that might add return to one's portfolio in a foreign exchange venue. He was right in making aware the malfeasance that was present in the funds history among other faults in the portfolio.

However, today with the dollar continuing to be weak and numerous funds capitalizing on that aspect, it's hard to ignore that maybe the heart of the Boglehead dictium framed with Taylor's 4 fund portfolio could be altered a small amount.  

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Re: Currency exchange
DeanCC 05-23-2008, 8:08 PM | Post #2521125
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I agree.
Re: International Bonds
amanjr 05-26-2008, 6:03 PM | Post #2521818
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By diverting from the true Vanguard-Boglehead theory of  Index funds and stay the course edict, would it be out of the realm to consider playing the foreign currency exchanges and invest in the Prudent Global Income fund or the T.Rowe Price International bond fund?

The market in it's present state viewed by Bogleheads has been stay in the United states and don't invest in foreign bond markets where there is less transparency then home. As a result, bond funds aren't offered at Vanguard which gives merit to stepping out of the true Boglehead view and going elsewhere where the are offered.

I got beat up by Russell two months ago for suggesting the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) could be a divergence that might add return to one's portfolio in a foreign exchange venue. He was right in making aware the malfeasance that was present in the fund's history among other faults in the portfolio.

However, today with the dollar continuing to be weak and numerous funds capitalizing on that aspect, it's hard to ignore that maybe the heart of the Boglehead dictum framed with Taylor's 4 fund portfolio could be altered a small amount.  

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Re: International Bonds
tnlsea 05-27-2008, 10:18 AM | Post #2521973
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Vanguard's Foreign Index funds are unhedged, therefore, there is already some foreign currency exchange in the portfolio.

- Tom

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Re: International Bonds
chipmunk 05-27-2008, 4:40 PM | Post #2522072
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I agree, and have posted on this several times. We have been placed into a global economic paradigm, where currencies now matter and can fluctuate wildly, and we are now dependent, for better or for worse, on these currencies. If you have a significant allocation to bonds, and if they are all denominated in US dollars, your bonds are at high risk because they are all based on one single currency. If you hold a basket of currencies, then the risk is lowered, because the failure of any single currency will have a smaller impact.

Saying the US dollar is the world's reserve currency won't work anymore either, in my opinion, because countries are doing the same thing I am proposing, i.e., diversifying their holdings with not only US dollars, but also euros to a large extent.

Using foreign equities for foreign currency exposure won't totally work (will work for equity portion), in my opinion, because global equity markets seem to now move in lockstep with each other, and you want your bonds to provide safety and hopefully move in different directions from stocks.

Another option to consider, since there are few decent low-cost options out there, is SPDR Lehman International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX).

Dan

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Re: International Bonds
tnlsea 05-27-2008, 5:17 PM | Post #2522080
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chipmunk:

Using foreign equities for foreign currency exposure won't totally work (will work for equity portion), in my opinion, because global equity markets seem to now move in lockstep with each other, and you want your bonds to provide safety and hopefully move in different directions from stocks.

Are you saying that global markets move in lock step denominated in US dollars or in local currencies?  The difference would be foreign currency exposure. 

- Tom

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