I recently jumped on the High-Yield bandwagon, so I may as well hop on the Growth wagon too.

I'm using the Growth Fund of America in my 401K.  Pretty nice fund that includes 18% in foreign stocks. 

 AGTHX

My other sucessful market-timing move is the Cohen & Steers Realty Shares fund. Looking good so far....  

CSRSX

At the end of 2007 when it was apparent that Growth Equity would be the Hot Hands Fund, DW did everything possible to detract from the selection.  This year we choose International Growth, which is DW's October Hot Hands pick.  Certainly, a better selection than Growth Equity.  Personally, I would never buy Growth Equity again after getting burnt so bad during the burst of the tech bubble.

Bill

rpetrocelli:

Now I know that the true hot hands fund this year is Vanguard Growth Equity -- which is one if the worst performing Vanguard funds this year.

Yet, based on the posts of most HH  investors,  it appears that many of them are using other large growth funds.  Such as Primecap or Growth Index.  Growth Index is beating the TSM by about .9%.  Priemcap is beating the TSM by about 4%.

It looks like large growth has the momentum so far this year.  Let's see if it continues.

Petrocelli 

Petro:  "hot hands" investing always works if you pick the fund after the performance period is over.

Andy

Petrocelli: Hot Hands Funds are definitely working again. It depends on who is picking the Fund. Dan Weiner's Pick was Growth Equity and today 5/16/08 Vanguard says its YTD is -7.17%. Dan may not be very in happy with his choice but it was the best he could come up with.

I quickly came up with 7 mutual Fund that would beat his choice. The +YTD winners as of today are. CGMFX=+13.87, PRLAX=+12.27, JORNX=+3.31,  ACGOX=+2.22.  Even just an average investor can pick a hot Fund; but I will have to do this for twenty some years for your acceptance approval. I only own 3 of the above 4; the leaders of course. And 4 of the 7 original suggested funds. Of course you know the names of the 7 as you are tracking them. Be sure to let us know  the results December 31st.

Murfield 

Murfield:

Petrocelli: Hot Hands Funds are definitely working again. It depends on who is picking the Fund. Dan Weiner's Pick was Growth Equity and today 5/16/08 Vanguard says its YTD is -7.17%. Dan may not be very in happy with his choice but it was the best he could come up with.

I quickly came up with 7 mutual Fund that would beat his choice. The +YTD winners as of today are. CGMFX=+13.87, PRLAX=+12.27, JORNX=+3.31,  ACGOX=+2.22.  Even just an average investor can pick a hot Fund; but I will have to do this for twenty some years for your acceptance approval. I only own 3 of the above 4; the leaders of course. And 4 of the 7 original suggested funds. Of course you know the names of the 7 as you are tracking them. Be sure to let us know  the results December 31st.

Murfield 

I also quickly came up with some funds that would beat his choice.  Every single mutual fund offered by Vanguard.  Equity funds and fixed income funds.  Domestic funds and international funds.  Sector funds.  Large caps and Small caps.  Blend funds too.

Andy

I think you guys are missing the point.

Hot asset classes tend to stay hot. I don't know why that is, but it happens over and over.

At the beginning of this year, large growth was the hot asset class.  If you increased your exposure to this asset class, you would have beaten the market slightly this year.

Petrocelli 

Mac/Murfield... Let's be fair.... Dan's advice was to not invest in Hot Hands this year but if you still wanted to then his choice was ONEQ (Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index)... this fund is down over 4% still...

We followed that advice.  It sucks too since after being locked out of the hot hands for four years.  We add to our international funds instead... VWIGX (Intl Growth).

Stats

rpetrocelli:

Hot asset classes tend to stay hot. I don't know why that is, but it happens over and over.

Collective performance chasing. 

KCallie:

rpetrocelli:

Hot asset classes tend to stay hot. I don't know why that is, but it happens over and over.

Collective performance chasing. 

Petrocelli 

rpetrocelli:

I think you guys are missing the point.

We get the point:

When is the Hot Hands Fund not the Hot Hands Fund?

When the Hot Hands Fund underperforms the market, because the Hot Hands Fund always outperforms the market.

This is pretty much a no-lose situation.  If Growth Equity outperforms, then the normal bragging will continue.  If it doesn't, then there will be rationalizations and justifications like the ones above.

- Tom