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FORGET LARGE CAPS?
Limoman 05-15-2008, 6:43 AM | Post #2517997 |  6 Replies
-6  

Excerpt from Published Article 

 One might want to look into FORGETTING about Owning Large Caps....

Why?  Just let the #'s speak for themselves..
> Using the past 8 and 10 yrs
> A Port. of Small, Mid, Large, Reit & Int'l Indexes
> Invested Equally ( No More in one s the other and thus eliminate the Guessing syndrome)
> Port #11 With Large Caps ( ave 20% ea) and Port. #2 Without Large Cap ( 25% ea)
>Results are estimates only.. do the research yourself to get more accurate #'s
Portfolio            8 yrs            10 yrs        00-02' Bear Mkt        03'    04'    5 yr
Portfolio #1          15%             9%             -16%/ -5.3%        37%    21%    17%
Portfolio #2        29%              9.83%         -9%/-3%              39%     23%    18%
So? Why Bother with A Large Cap fund?
And Don't believe all the HYPE from All the Columnist and the Rest for that matter..
And ask yourself this?
If you were a Large Cap Corp, wouldn't you want to use your influence over everyone concerned to "Advocate" investors into buying your co's Stock?
And directly or Indirectly , don't the Large Cap Co.'s OWN all the major publishing & News houses from Down Jones to WSJ to CNBC, etc? And what do you think happens when some columnist mentions anything Negative about a Large cap sector?   How long do you think, you would keep your job if you spoke Negative to the Public about your company?
Don't kid yourself.. After having these execs from serving these Fortune 500 Co.'s  in the Back Seat of my Limo Business for over 30 yrs...they have Top  Pro's to not just Do Lobbying and 'Watching" who is saying what, but to do Damage control..
Including over ALL the Brokers and Brokerage Houses.., Investment Advisors and all the way down the line...
Just have to look at co.'s Like ENRON and look what their Pro's/Exec.'s did in Manipulating everyone else on the planet..
and for you purest who like to use more than the past 10 yrs? FYI? The market of Investing has changed dramatically since the age of the PC/Internet.. Prior to 1995? It means All but Nothing on what happened back then.. and the next 10 yrs will dramatically change again and be even more volatile...( Sure, prior to the Mid 90's, Large Cap Co.'s dominated the Markets, but not anymore )
I used to be a Major Investor into Large Caps ( Indexing) prior to 1998...but I "saw the Light" thanks to those "other" Clients that pointed this point out to me and I , reluctantly Got out of Large Caps starting in 1998 and was all but totally out by Yr 2000... and it  " SMA" ( savedmy a*s )  and I haven't been back into them( on a direct basis) ever since..
want further proof? How about The Bond Funds have BEATEN the S&P Index for the past 8 & 10 yrs!  ( S&P  did 3% for past 8 and 5.6% past 10 ) And you wonder why they advocate only using the past 3 & 5 yrs? While the other Asset classes have done 3-5x as well!
Me thinks the Days of Large caps are all but over with...
And probably have been for over a Decade...
And just go back the past 8 & 10 yrs and compare how your Portfolio would have done Without your Large Caps .. Odds are, if you followed all the Hype these past 3-5 yrs and bought More LC, you got suckered...and underperformed the other sectors ... Many " Advisors" have been advocating owning as much a 50% in Large caps ( 25% Growth and 25% value, etc)... And look how " Well" that has done?
And wonder why the Likes of  some " Paul Ferrell's " 8 Top Index Fund Ports have Equal % or Less invested and not More in Large Caps? mmmmmmm I wonder why?
And Wonder why All of the Professional Asseet mgmnt. Firms I've contacted, would NOT provide me with there Recommended Ports prior to 2003?
They had Major Positions in Large caps, that's why..
 http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxdm824MNUS Go figure
and when it comes to Investing Your $? You can't trust Anyone..They ALL have Hidden Agenda's...

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Re: FORGET LARGE CAPS?
cesare3@aol.com 05-15-2008, 4:06 PM | Post #2518188
0  
dennis can you tell us what funds adam bold has you in,thanks.
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Re: FORGET LARGE CAPS?
Exactduke 05-15-2008, 5:05 PM | Post #2518211
2  

You can always look backward, and say I should have been in this or that.  The very fact that large caps have underperformed would lead me to believe that their day is coming.  I'm sticking with my allocation, and that includes large caps.  But I am happy that my portfolio also includes mid/small caps, international, bonds, etc. 

If I had known my companies stock would be worth 20 times what I paid for it 1986, I would have put 18,000 into it, and not 1,800.   

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Re: FORGET LARGE CAPS?
oildog 05-15-2008, 6:51 PM | Post #2518258
0  

It's true that small-caps offer higher long-term returns compared to large-caps, although restricting your attention to the past ten years is probably not the best idea given 2000 was the peak of one of the most extreme large-cap overvaluations in history.  You might want to try hopping over to the Vanguard board.  They love discussing this kind of issue ad nauseum. 

Best,
Oildog
 

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Re: FORGET LARGE CAPS?
Limoman 05-17-2008, 8:17 AM | Post #2518823
1  

"dennis can you tell us what funds adam bold has you in,thanks."

Re: Well, What Exact fund  would be a violation of discloser  and Most are Load funds they get without the load ( It's their nitch and trick of the trade Me thinks ) and are Way different than the most of the one's he talks about on his Radio & TV show..

And understand something else..My Limo service i worked with for 30 yrs  took care of his Dad and family and then AB for yrs out of NorthBrook, Illinois and his firm has been taking care of 'some"  of the Limo Co.'s investments ever since.. but, so do some other Firms that are clients of the Limo co. as well..

And I found each Franchise office is Alittle Different ( I've gone thru 3 of them before using the one I have now )

I also Interviewed 6 different Firms before "Settling" for TMFS.. Not that they were the Best, just that they were the Most 'Flexable'.. after bringing to the table my Portfolio's and How well they had been doing and how Adament I was in keeping them.. So we ended up with a compromise plan..Mine and there's mixed... and ' setting the Tone' so to speak...bruising some ego's , but none the less..

and I told them I wanted a Local office and Guy that I can run over to and catch them before they try to Sneak out the parking lot with suitcases of my $ and escape to The Islands and since his family lives in my Neighborhood  ...I can throw Rotten Eggs at his house if he screws up...LOL

And I only gave them their Min  $50k back 3 yrs ago ,  just to try them out..( and what's a lousy 1.5% fee = $750  to see how these "Pro's" do it..Plus maybe get some Added Information and ideas on other matters..( On how to buy stocks , Options, Puts /calls, and a whole bunch of other adivce I'v gotten ever since.. from my Franchise store guy  (and his Sexretary is nice on the eyes when I go in every month for Free Coffee, Donuts & Pens and anything else I can steal......LOL )  which is alot more fun than when I used to use Fidelity offiice near by..

And They were offerring either A dozen Free Libby glasses or a Microwave Oven for new accounts...LOL

And My Main reason for even Hiring a Asset Manage firm?

 Not to Beat the Markets, but To just do as well or better to Take over things WHEN I can't anymore..Seeing as I am A Widower and as for the kids? Forget about them... Be it having a stroke, Nursing Home, ALZ, Nursing Home and After Death> Legacy Account..( and sure not about to let my 20 yr younger girlfriend handle my $...LOL )

However! His current Publicl;y talked about Funds he advocates are doing FAIR.. But keep in mind They are All equity type funds and have higher risk diviations than comparable indexes..thus will Be down More in Bear markets , but outperform in Bull..  so it all depends .

And he has been advocating Bond Fund> LSBRX and Some balanced funds ( PRWCX) of late... maybe to Cover his Rear lately...LOL

I like his Advocating the 5% rule in many Asset classes.. and he does bring some good Pro's and Con's to mind too.. Just like alll the others in this business..and I just Love his being so Negative about Annuities..and certain callers Investments on how they've been Had by Brokers...LOL

But, He, like all the others are just Guessing and what's the Ave. % of the Pro's being Right? > 20%?

His Public Recommended Funds as of Going into 08'?

MXXIX-35%

FMIEX-20% ( replaced UMBIX when it closed up shop and bought by Columbia as a Load fund )

HDPMX- 20%

TAVFX - 15%

ARTIX -10%

as of close on 5/16 YTD = ( 1.8% )

5% allocations in sectors and funds that should do well ?

BUFTX-Tech

FBRSX-Finance

SWHFX-Health

Fwd Hover for  Small caps

Royce Value

Bonds> LSBRX

Vs My Portfolio with them ? = + 3.6% YTD

07' did  =+ 15.6%

 So far so good for me..

But? If you don't need a AMF ( Asset Management Firm)  than for just investing your $ and doing better than you?

I Suggest just Use AMBF's ( Active Managed Balanced funds) like FPACX,LAALX,OAKBX,PRWCX and use LSBRX to get whatever extra % bal in bonds you may want..

and if Want to make More $ from them? Just add more to them..not have to take on more risk with risker funds..

Or God Forbid? Set up a 60/40 Bal. Port of index Funds....LOL

The 60/40 Index Port I track has done about 13.6% past 5 yrs, 9% apy for past 8 yrs and about 7.7% past 10 yrs  and just go 90% in Bonds during a Bear market and 90% in a Bull and you might do just as well...LOL

 

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Re: FORGET LARGE CAPS?
Limoman 05-17-2008, 10:08 AM | Post #2518859
0  

LOL > -5 rating

I must have touched some Neg, Nerves of some of our fellow Investors...

Probably most are either FP's and like kind wannabe's that have to justify  things.and still want to go down with the Titanic..to others who just don't like me... but aren't man enough  to say so...

But last I heard this was an Open Forum... ?

and not to be dominated by a few, but for the many.. and why I Add ratings to just about every subject...to promote conversations..& participation.. and not be so negative..

You disagree? Be Man Enough to say so..

I know, it's a Cross we Contraians  & Blue Collar types just have to Bear....

LOL

 In spite of that being said?

 Weekend BBQ 

 

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NO MORE LARGE CAPS??!
bythenbrs 05-17-2008, 11:04 AM | Post #2518880
0  

Can't I still use them for proper nouns? 

BytheNbrs

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