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CEF pair weights fedcep  04-04-2008, 9:01 AM | Post #2505128 |  6 Replies
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Hi all,

Suppose you are setting up a closed-end fund pair trade. You have two CEFs that invest in exactly the same portfolio, have no leverage, and whose management fees represent the same % of assets. Fund A is trading at a 20% premium to NAV, and Fund B is trading at a 10% discount to NAV. So, you want to be long B and short A, because you think the spread between fund A and fund B will narrow.

How would you set the weights of each leg of the trade? According to the funds' share price (long $1 of B for each $1 short of A), or according to their NAVs (long $1 of B's NAV for each $1 short of A's NAV)?

The latter makes more sense to me, but I was wondering what you think. Thanks in advance.

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Re: CEF pair weights highgamma 04-04-2008, 9:20 AM | Post #2505139
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This issue extends to every arbitrage I have ever thought about. Suppose that there are two classes of stock. Class A trades at a 10% discount to class B. Should you hedge one-to-one or one-to-0.9?

The answer depends upon your time horizon and the risks of the trade. For instance, suppose that the fund portfolios are quite volatile. If fund A and fund B doubles, what do you think will happen to the relative discounts? If they stay the same and you are on a hedge based upon the value of the underlying value of the portfolio, you'll get creamed.

(Example: Suppose that both portfolios have $10 worth of stock and A trades at a 10% discount while B trades at a 0% discount. A is trading at $9 and B trades at $10, so you buy 1 shares of A and short 1 share of B to be hedged based upon the value of the underlying portfolio. The portfolio value jumps to $20. If A stays at a 10% discount, it will go to $18. If B stays at 0% discount (as it will if it's an ETF), it's value goes to $20. Since you are on a one-to-one hedge, you lose a dollar.)

However, if the discount narrows, a one-to-one hedge will be more appropriate.

In general, I use a market value hedge BUT I adjust the hedge as the discount narrows and widens. (So in the the example above, I would buy one share of A and sell short 0.9 shares of B. As the discount widens or narrows, I adjust the hedge.) Essentially, I'm taking the risk the correlation between the discount and the value of the underlying portfolio is negative. That is, if the % discount narrows as the stock goes up and lowers as the stock price goes down, I'll need to buy more shares of B at a higher price and sell more shares of B at a lower price. My experience has been the opposite, so I stick to my market value hedge.

Re: CEF pair weights fedcep 04-04-2008, 10:15 AM | Post #2505166
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Thanks for the reply, highgamma. I was approaching the funds' NAV as the notional (or "intrinsic value"), so you want to be neutral in terms of notional and wait for the assets to re-price. In that case, then, wouldn't it make more sense to hedge according to NAV?

My impression is that by hedging by market value you don't really have a portfolio-neutral position, and you're taking a directional bet. For instance, in your example where A trades at $0.9 on the dollar, and B trades at par: if you hedge one-to-one using market prices, you're net long the underlying portfolio. If the portfolio loses value, technically you would lose as well. Whereas by being "NAV neutral", you would be isolated from market movements.

Does this make sense? I'm sure I'm missing something.

Consider "Constant Discounts" in up and down NAV moves RelativeValue 04-04-2008, 4:15 PM | Post #2505281
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Great discussion - would love to see more of this.

I would (do) hedge $ market value not NAV value  Here are 2 considerations.

1) Consider "discount staying constant" under NAV increases and decreases. IF NAV is 100 and A is 10% premium while B is 10% discount then a $1 rise in NAV requires B to do up a larger % move than As to equal A's dollar move if discount stays constant. The reverse on a -$1 move in NAV

2) I'd also consider the volatility of the A and B

Peter

BTW, I posted some threads on pairs trading , CEE, TRF and RNE a while back but didn't get much interest.

Re: Consider "Constant Discounts" in up and down NAV moves fedcep 04-07-2008, 12:25 AM | Post #2506027
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The point about constant discounts is interesting. The trade I'm thinking about seeks to profit from the discounts/premiums reverting back to their mean. So, I would actually need the pair to be at a break even point if the discounts for fund A and fund B remain constant.

Regarding the volatility of the two funds, do you mean the correlation between each other's market price? Say, calculating the correlation between the two funds in a rolling window of X days?

Re: Consider "Constant Discounts" in up and down NAV moves highgamma 04-18-2008, 10:37 PM | Post #2509593
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Sorry for taking so long to respond. It's been a busy two weeks.

 I'm very concerned about big movements in the CEFs. Let's take the simple example of hedging a CEF with an ETF. The ETF always stays at a 0% discount (approximately). Suppose there's a big bull market and they both double in market price. I lose a lot of money if I'm on an NAV hedge. I can make or lose money on the discount narrowing or widening. So I'm actually short the overall market plus I have a bet on the discount.

 

Now suppose I have a market hedge and the overall market doubles. If the discount stays the same, I neither make or lose money. In that sense, a market-based hedge is "market-neutral". Now suppose on a given day the discount narrows. Well, I just sell more of the ETF to get back to my market based hedge. This only hurts me if I'm selling when the overall market is down. So the correlation that I'm worried about is between the discount of the fund and the overall level of the asset class in which the fund invests.

Hope this is of help.

 

Re: Consider "Constant Discounts" in up and down NAV moves fedcep 05-09-2008, 3:30 PM | Post #2516268
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Thanks for the reply, highgamma. That makes sense. Would you set the weights of a market hedge by calculating the beta-adjusted values (with beta being calculated by running the CEF's NAV against the ETF)

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