Thanks, Kenster, for the additional information. This suggests that the next global investing hotspot will be the Middle East and Gulf region.

Additionally, on page 37 of the Deutche Bank report, it states: "The Middle East/North Africa is a new listing on the survey for 2008 and the predicted top performer
amongst all regions. If a firm has exposure, it is not planning to reduce it, and nearly a third of investors plan to increase their exposure." 

TRAMX is up +8.84% YTD which is 12.43% better than Morningstar's diversified emerging-market category average.

What are you wating for, guys, an engraved invitation?  But, as usual, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Jagor 

I found this fund last fall, but missed the initial roll out, boo...

looking at the advise on this board, and what portfolio's people have listed/ recommended, exposure to large areas of growth is missing.

I'd rather have some exposure in each of the growth areas instead of one of the diversified 'one stop shopping' style funds. 

I strongly agree, look for targeted funds, and spread your wealth outside the US.  Just don't put it all in one spot. use a dozen spots to put a dozen eggs,  it is safer.

You guys have got to be kidding.  Dubai has bubble written all over it.  It's more like "pie in the sky."  They're selling off tiny parcels of desert for millions of dollars to speculators who have no intention of actually inhabiting the plots. 

Incidentally, construction of the world's tallest building is often an indicator that things have gone crazy in a society - too much money being thrown around at economically unsound projects.  You'll recall that 40 Wall Street, the Chrysler Building, and the Empire State Building were all commissioned right at the tail end of the roaring 1920s.  That didn't turn out too well - the Empire State Building was largely empty during the Great Depression and unprofitable until the 1950s.  The Petronas Towers in Malaysia didn't fare too well either.  They were completed in 1998, just in time for the Asian Financial Crisis. 

As for TRAMX, it's predominantly exposed to financial institutions in the Middle East.  These are the institutions that are underwriting all this crazy speculation.  e.g. Top holding: Emaar Properties PJSC.  This is a firm that, because of insane property valuations in Dubai, is going to become "one of the world's most valuable companies by 2010."  They used to say that about all the banks in Tokyo that held Japanese land on their books - before the bubble burst and land collapsed by more than 50%. 

After seeing what's happened to the US financial system over the past year, why anybody would want to go off and speculate on banks in the Middle East is way beyond me.  Speculating on bubbles is not investment.  It's gambling. 

Best,
Oildog

Oildog,

With all due respect, I specifically wrote in my post, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," and I was going to add the standard caveat, "Past performance does not guarantee future results." 

I am retired and almost 50% of my portfolio is in bond funds, but there is no reason whatsoever that investors--even retirees like me--shouldn't put a little mad money in a fund such as TRAMX. 

Furthermore, I worked in the Gulf area for almost eight years and possess some first-hand, on-the-spot knowledge of the region.  Certainly with crude oil fetching $120 a barrel, the Gulf countries are experiencing a boom.  And yes, it is true that one of these days the bubble will burst--although maybe it won't be until oil reaches $200 a barrel.  But you know what to do when the bubble bursts? Just sell your shares in TRAMX and collect your profits as you would with any other investment.

Jagor 

Oh I also will not jump on a Middle East Fund. 

If I had to pick one Country/Region to invest in based on their Energy/Natural Resource abundance then I would pick the safer Canada option. 

It's just interesting data to see where investors out there think things are headed---I do try to stick to a more diversified global theme. 

Both T. Rowe Price EM and Global Fund have some exposure to the Middle East / Africa region and so that should do the trick for most people.   

As of 3/31/08 --- % of Fund in Middle East & Africa

TRP EM Fund: 15.8%
TRP Global Fund: 3.8%

I'll admit that the Dubai skyscraper binge is a concern. I wonder about the long-term sustainability of the Gulf cities in the desert.

But for now I think it's one of the best investments to be found.  I'm hugging TRAMX and its collection of Islamic Banks.  Why?  No subprime!  I bought TRAMX early on and watched it soar while every other finance-heavy fund on the planet crashed last year.

Clearly the regional boom is linked to energy prices - but until someone invents a "Mr. Fusion" device to power our cars, I doubt that oil will fall below $100.  So, I follow the money.  (OK, I've only got 4% in TRAMX.)

A true classic bubble has crazy valuations, but TRAMX has some of the best valuations out there.   Compared to the S&P it's cheap.  The profits and growth are real.

At least as long as there are happy customers willing to pay through the nose for oil & gas.   (Thougth the ride might get bumpy if things heat up accross the Gulf.)
 

I am retired and almost 50% of my portfolio is in bond funds, but there is no reason whatsoever that investors--even retirees like me--shouldn't put a little mad money in a fund such as TRAMX. 

If you're talking about mad money, sure.  But there's no reason you wouldn't put mad money in lotto tickets either.  I'd certainly agree that there are sensible reasons why one might pursue international diversification in a niche region like Africa/Middle East.  However, the posts in this thread lean much more towards hyping developments in the region and emphasizing recent performance.  That's a recipe for losing money.

But you know what to do when the bubble bursts? Just sell your shares in TRAMX and collect your profits as you would with any other investment.

Things don't work that way.  If it were so easy, there would be thousands of aggressive growth funds that zoomed during the tech bubble and didn't lose anything afterwards.  A bursting bubble is only obvious after it has thoroughly deflated.  By the time you get around to selling TRAMX, there likely won't be a lot of profits left to collect.

Best,
Oildog

Oildog,

Wise words, as usual [I read many of your posts], but I still beg to disagree.

In your previous post you wrote “Speculating on bubbles is not investment.  It's gambling.”  I would appreciate knowing which investments—aside from Treasurys and CD’s, which are insured 100% by the government—are not “gambling.”  

In fact, as every investor knows—or should know—every investment is a gamble, based on the investor’s own due diligence and analysis of risk and reward.  A lot of smart people, including the editors of Fortune and CFO Magazine, certainly did not consider Enron to be a “gamble.”  Likewise, a lot of people, including most notably Jim Cramer, did not consider Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest investment bank in New York, to be a “gamble” on Friday, March 14, 2008. Like Enron, it subsequently--and rapidly--lost 99% of its value.  As they say in the Gulf, “Only God knows the future.”  And God was certainly not talking to Jim Cramer.

With respect to your comment the posts on this thread are "hyping developments in the region and emphasizing recent performance."  Well, the inception date of TRAMX is September 4, 2007, so how can we comment on anything other than its "recent performance?" 

And why shouldn't potential investors inform themselves about current economic developments in the Gulf--even though they may appear to be "hype" to some people?

Jagor 

Before buying TRAMX last year I spent a day studying every holding. We can find the complete portfolio for each quarter via a link on this page HERE.  I concluded that manager Chris Alderson knows what he's doing. 

I also consulted the COFACE (French business risk insurer) country ratings (click HERE), and have my personal M.E. & Africa travel and work experience, FWIW.

I'm sure that Alderson is watching the Dubai skyscraper phenomenon as closely as anyone.   Alderson is arguably the most successful and experienced EM fund manager I know.  He's running an actively-managed fund with a wide geographic mandate; not a blind, market-cap based index.

IMHO, the bigger challenge is successful Africa - not Gulf - investing.  For example, you don't dare ship product to Nigeria without full payment in advance. 

Furthermore, the stocks do not appear overbought.  TRAMX is one of the only vehicles I know of to invest in the M.E. and Africa.  This bears no resemblance to the tech bubble with its hundreds of tech funds buying companies yet to produce a profit.

From my perspective it's the USD-denominated S&P 500 that's truly risky.  A diversified collection of global EM funds provides exposure to the real growth occurring worldwide in countries with strong balance sheets and excellent balance of payments.

I agree that TRAMX is a pseudo energy and natural resources play.  If the price of crude falls to $50 the fund will fare very poorly.   There is also a risk of regional conflict (think Iran). 

However, I consider the regional infrastructure growth to be very solid.  Look at the air traffic patterns - Dubai has one of the world's busiest airports.  Located between Europe and the Far East, it has become a prime tourist and commercial destination.