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Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
zwilnik 04-17-2008, 1:18 AM | Post #2509022 |  23 Replies
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A few weeks ago, on one of these threads, several commented that virtually all CEFs on their watch lists were down YTD.  As I reviewed my lists, I had to agree; everything was down without any relief in sight.

Things are generally looking much better now, but I was surprised as I looked at IGR, RPF, AWP, RNP, RIT, etc -- virtually all Real Estate CEFs are not only up YTD, but they're up substatially.  ICF is also up YTD, but EGLRX is still down.

We've all been looking for a bottom.  Housing and Construction are still way down, but maybe the time has finally come to start re-thinking Real Estate!

What do you think!

Zwilnik 

 

 

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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
jagor 04-17-2008, 2:36 AM | Post #2509026
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You're right--in the media frenzy over the sub-prime and Bear-Stearns debacles, real estate has been quietly creeping up while remaining under most people's radar.

On the advice of a friend who posts on the Vanguard Diehards forum, I checked out the Vanguard REIT index fund VGSIX and ended up buying it. It's up +8.48% YTD, including yesterday's jump of +3.87%.  Plus, it's yielding 4.92%.

I still have my position in EGLRX but can't figure out why it is doing so badly--down -11.56% YTD, although yesterday it was up +2.42 %.  So that's a good sign. I guess Sam Lieber has made some bad choices.

At the moment I don't have any pure-REIT funds in my closed-end portfolio since I've been stocking up on non-dollar denominated emerging-market bond CEF's for income and as a hedge against the depreciating dollar.

Any particular recommendations for closed-end REIT funds?

Jagor 

Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
chamois 04-17-2008, 7:43 AM | Post #2509045
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Most REITs earn their Funds From Operations in local currencies, so are good surrogates for foreign bonds from a forex (falling dollar) standpoint.  In addition to IGR, RWF has a very similar global portfolio.  RAF and RAP are devoted to Asia and Australasia respectively. I also hold WPS, which is an international property ETF.  Not buy receommendations but subjects for DD.

US only REIT CEF, such as RLF, also did well yesterday

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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
capecod 04-17-2008, 9:47 AM | Post #2509085
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Guys...I too am watching these closely for an opportunity to re-enter...but just a word of caution.  The nice YTD returns are largely a rebound from the extraordinary tax-selling lows set at year end.  That tax selling was a consequence of horrible performance during 07.  Finally, none of the CEFs mentioned above successfully broken above the downtrend lines in all of these from October 07.  I'll happily join you in buying some of these, but only after they prove they can break the downtrend.

Dick

Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
chamois 04-17-2008, 11:26 AM | Post #2509116
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That's a very good point, Dick, but depending on which moving average you use for a trend line, waiting can cost you much of the new advance.  For example, IGR is up 15% from its 2007-2008 low and if you wait for the 200dma, it'll cost you another 15%.  IGR is already above a 50dma, and this price improvement doesn't fully account for the monthly distribution stream (9% annualized).  I think it's important to consider the fundamentals at work in these REITs as well, such as inflation and demographics, particularly in emerging markets. Financial services, including REITs, are an early stage sector in the event of a new market cycle.  Best wishes, Bill
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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
capecod 04-17-2008, 11:49 AM | Post #2509123
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Good points....however, please note I'm talking about chart downtrend lines connecting the recent successively lower highs since October ..not moving averages.  For RNP, for example, up 20-30 cents, and then holding it for a day or two would bring me in on the long side.

Regards, Dick

Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
chamois 04-17-2008, 12:48 PM | Post #2509151
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"Charts become dangerous only when they seem meaningful."  -Euler
Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
capecod 04-17-2008, 3:05 PM | Post #2509188
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I grant you Euler may have a point.  However, Euler may also have purchased Citi at 45 or Wachovia at 40 because they were "down enough" and is now waiting for those great dividends to bail him out!

Dick

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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
chamois 04-18-2008, 8:28 AM | Post #2509359
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True! Buying Citi at $45 on the way down would have been an error in judgment.  Not buying it more recently at $20 may have been another.  (at least for us FA guys) Best wishes,  Bill
Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
capecod 04-18-2008, 11:30 AM | Post #2509403
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Chamois...thanks for bringing these CEFs to my attention....they've convinced me with price action yesterday and today, so I'm aboard with you now on a couple.

Regards, Dick

PS. Re Citi - have you considered C convert pref instead of C itself?  Any thoughts? 

Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
Gerry39 04-18-2008, 9:15 PM | Post #2509572
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I bought C-V last Fall.  Pays a nice dividend and is up about $0.10 from purchase price.  Big deal but better than being down 32% like my Citi stock.  Meantime I'm enjoying a nice dividend...around 9% I think.
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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
zwilnik 04-18-2008, 9:50 PM | Post #2509586
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O is the only REIT I carried through the tough times.  I've owned IGR, CGMRX, & ICF in the past, but have been watching several CEFs for a while.

IGR always seems like a no-brainer.  Good company, well run.  RNP & RPF are interesting, if C & S get straightened out. 

I don't normally look at funds until they've had time to establish themselves, but I'm intrigued by AWP.  I've liked Alpine in the past.  It seems to be quietly "running under the radar".  What are your feelings about AWP?

Zwilnik

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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
chamois 04-19-2008, 8:09 AM | Post #2509639
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Last time I looked at AWP, which was some time ago, it was heavy in RE finance companies, maybe explaining its underperformance at the time.  I notice Lieber's mutual reit fund EGRLX is also not doing well

Dick, I haven't looked at converts at all; trying to subordinate current income to LTCG for tax reasons 

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Re: Real Estate rears its head -- finally!
dicryan 04-20-2008, 10:31 PM | Post #2510111
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