Bush tried all he could about trying to convince the Saudis to increase production, but all he got was a "NO WAY" from the Saudis

Oil Minister Ali Naimi told reporters. "We will raise production when the market justifies it. This is our policy"

And it seems that all of a sudden, oil has dropped for the third day in a row.  In fact, it got back below $90 a barrel for awhile today, before settling at 90.86 today. 

How can this be?

You don't actually think that maybe, just MAYBE, the Saudi's SAID one thing in response to that recent meeting, while they are actually planning to DO something different?  Naw, that couldn't be it.  The Saudis wouldn't lie about something like this, would they?

;-)

MWL

mwleach:

And it seems that all of a sudden, oil has dropped for the third day in a row.  In fact, it got back below $90 a barrel for awhile today, before settling at 90.86 today. 

How can this be?

You don't actually think that maybe, just MAYBE, the Saudi's SAID one thing in response to that recent meeting, while they are actually planning to DO something different?  Naw, that couldn't be it.  The Saudis wouldn't lie about something like this, would they?

;-)

MWL

Keep hope alive.......... It's all you got left in seeing Oil below $100 for a long time...

KoalaBear33:

Are you telling me that Bush isn't your friend? ;)

Well, we'll see how your call turns out... you have your wildly optimistic oil call... I have my Ambac... interesting times... it was the best of times... it was the worst of times... 

 

Yeah, this IS your year, how can I forget that...

ABK to the moon, Oil at $25 per barrel. You'll be richer than Buffet, I'll be the biggest loser in this forum, and you'll be a genius and being vindicated after many months of predicting the unpredictable...

Ahhhhhhhh life is finally wonderful for Koala...

 

Koala, did I forget to mention ABK today was down 40%???

Tell me you did not buy AMBAC.  Please tell me, after all the warning you have heard about systemic credit risk for these many months, you did not buy that stock. 

If I take a piece of paper, write Financial Company on the top, and wipe my butt with it, will you buy it off of me for a few bucks?  Well...apparently you will.  Geez. 

Man... I used to be quite frustrated by people like you, that just insist on doing stupid things with their money.  But lately, I am happy about it.  If I did not have folks like you to take the other side of my trades, I would not have so many opportunities to make money.   

Speaking of the other side, where is Londonroad these days?  What does she have to say for herself, and her obnoxious advice to go long on junk bonds, just months before the market dives through the floor?

You know KB, at least you only hurt yourself.  Someone like LR, she hurts others with her nonsense and refuses to take responsibility for her bad behavior and advice.  That is really wrong. 

 

Alex...:

Tell me you did not buy AMBAC.  Please tell me, after all the warning you have heard about systemic credit risk for these many months, you did not buy that stock. 

Yep, Koala did it. He bought a LOT at a price around $23 about a week ago... I won’t comment any further.

As for LondonRoad. I believe she's losing money in the market... She has better things to worry now than to argue with you... lol  You know those permabulls, most of the times they are out of touch with reality. The funniest thing she said was when she believed this subprime stuff was nothing more than a simple cup of tea... Yeah, how does that cup of tea taste now LondonRoad... lol

ahhhhhhh those permabulls...

 

Frankly, I don't think the Saudis CAN raise production.  This is the scary thing no one wants to face, really.  The book Twilight in the Desert makes all of this all to clear, their fields have peaked, and they cannot do any thing about it.  When people figure this out...finally...there will be oil prices much higher than they are now. 

Koala 

 

KoalaBear (a Canadian) I have to say you are the perfect contrairian indicator. As a Canadian you said you bought US government bonds with Canadian dollars before the US dollar started tanking.  Talk about a bad move. 

Now this move, buying ABK has to be one of the all time significant moves.  I'm not sure how you decide to make his moves, but you have had some really interesting "investments"  and points of view. 

 

 

 

 

farmera1:

Koala 

KoalaBear (a Canadian) I have to say you are the perfect contrairian indicator. As a Canadian you said you bought US government bonds with Canadian dollars before the US dollar started tanking.  Talk about a bad move. 

Now this move, buying ABK has to be one of the all time significant moves.  I'm not sure how you decide to make his moves, but you have had some really interesting "investments"  and points of view. 

Farmera, you want to know another "interesting" move by Koala? Around Oct 2007 (if I'm not mistaken) he bought HMY, and he held it for a few days or couple of weeks (can't remember). Now listen to this, this is the BEST part: Koala sold HMY and he wrote in his blog this idiotic report about Gold being in synch with the market, so he sold HMY believing gold was going nowhere since he thought the market was going to tank taking gold down as well. Guess what happened to gold the day AFTER Koala sold? GOLD TOOK OFF FROM THE $600 TO 900 IN LESS THAN 3 MONTHS. I mean, this rocket gold move started the day AFTER Koala sold.

Koala claims to be a contrarian investor...... He's more of a contrarian indicator, and he sure lives up to his reputation... lol

I realised my comments seem very abusive.  But really there were out of sheer astonishment, not to hurt you. 

My friend...  Please... Please... learn from your own mistakes, so you don't waste money on the same ones again.  What I mean specifically, is you invested in a mortgage broker sometime ago.  It went to zero.  That has to be categorized as an investment failure, so there must be some lessons to learn from it. 

The lesson in this case is that you got into a company very vulnerable to credit risk problems, that probably needed to restructure to survive.  That is basically taking a lot of upfront, impossible to quantify, risk.  I would posit that you did the same thing with AMBAC.  Pleas give that some thought. 

Now I would like to talk about a couple of "mistakes" of mine.  By my calculations, I probably went bearish about one year too early this time around.  I am not regretting it now, but looking back, I could have held in and gotten some more of that bull without much extra risk. 

And now for an old and very big mistake.  I lost about half my investment on Worldcom.  Specific mistakes was not understanding the business, and knowing they were negative cash flow with no easy way to get to positive.  Not a good decision at all. 

So my point is we can all learn from our own, and other people's mistakes.  But a failure to learn from these is very expensive, and it is a killer to pay tuition more than once. 

Good luck in your future choices.  I am really rooting for you. 

Ouch Koala...I enjoy your bearish posts.  I can't believe a bear like you bought ambac in these times.  Hope you had a tight stop loss on that one.  If it makes you feel any better I got burned on a quick CFC trade idea....that was more than idiotic on my part.  Have a great weekend.