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Derivatives to blame for the recent Merrill Lynch, Citigroup write-downs?
TradingDesk  12-02-2007, 7:07 AM | Post #2461340 |  3 Replies
2  

Blame it on Rio (Risk Ignorant Outlook);  blame it on derivatives?

 

The increased usage of derivatives is not the sole reason for the recent spate of debt write-downs by the likes of Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Countrywide, etc.  Invariably, the unmitigated quest for profit, combined with a myopic short-term investment focus, mixed in with whirling devirish volatility and the lack of ability to redistribute risk despite the incomprehensible array of hybrid derivatives products, were the "perfect storm" for calamity.

 

Derivatives have become a bewildering, complex, sometimes nonsensical financial instruments, whose intrinsic value is only on paper, vacuous, as the underlying cash or security has been so sliced and diced and tranched and mezzanined and senior this and equity that to the point that the best minds and quants at MIT, Stanford, Baruch College and the leading IB's on Wall Street could not price or value them with any certainty

 

The "Chinese Wall", or should I be more politically correct and say, the "firewalls" that once existed to separate banks, brokers and insurance and assurance entities before the Glass-Steagall Act was effectively repealed in the late 90's, has made for some very questionable bedfellows, passing around mortgage-backed securities like appetizers to each other and leaving the crumbs of the feast to be cleaned up by the wait staff.

 

Think Fannie Mae. 

Not only how they failed in their accounting for derivatives "off-balance sheet" by not marking-to-market, but  the tawdry business of "making markets" in mortgage-backed securities, in effect selling the products and buying them back in unrecognizable, grotesque form, and stating them in the journal entries at original value, P&L reflecting inordinate profits.

 

If only I could do that with my own bank account.

 

I wouldn't have time to write this article, for I would be in a villa somewhere on a tropical isle.

 

TradingDesk

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Re: Derivatives to blame for the recent Merrill Lynch, Citigroup write-downs? GeorgeBMac 12-02-2007, 9:03 AM | Post #2461361
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Trading Desk,

Thanks for your thoughtful insights.

 There are some (such as Morningstar) who are attempting to minimize / trivialize the causes of the current market conditions.  For example, the currect article by Rachel Barnard called "Demystifying a Credit Crisis Bogeyman".

Aside from the title suggesting that the current crisis is simply a "bogeyman", she explicitly states things such as:

"the structured investment vehicle, or SIV, now has an evil ring to it because of its association with the credit crisis"   and she further suggests that their bad reputation si simply the result of "media hype". 
Well, Duh.....  There is a good reason for that -- there is a direct link between SIVs (and CDOs) and the current dredit drisis.

She then casually explains that SIVs are a normal part of the investment world and that they simply: "The SIV borrows money for a short time and ... then invests that money in securities that pay higher interest rates."  She unfotunately fails to mention that they receive higher interest rates because they are loaning it out long term -- such as for shaky adjustable rate mortgages that have little chance of ever being repaid.  Although she is Ph.D, she apparently never heard the first rule of investing:  'Never borrow short and lend long' --  it has long been considered a formula for disaster.

Then she has the audacity to tell us:  "SIVs have been around since the late 1980s and have historically been considered safe investments".  Yes, they have been around since the late 80's -- they were created by Citi -- one of the biggest offenders.  And, they were only considered safe by those who were skimming the profits -- otherwise, nobody else understood the shell gave they were playing -- not even those who ran them.  In fact, because of their opacity, they have spent most of 2007 trying to figure out what their exposure was...

Then she tries to make us believe:  "Some SIVs hold subprime securities in their investment portfolios. Although the percentages are not large and there have not been any losses yet".  I think that she owes us facts rather than opinions -- especially when close to a dozen banks have already taken losses in the billions and threaten to take more.  And, if it were so innocuous, then why is Charles Prince, the CEO of Citi, in the unemploment line?

Then she distorts the facts by telling us:  "There are two categories of companies that are exposed to SIV problems: the banks that back the SIVs and any companies that lend to them."  -- Which is implying that individual investors have no risk here.  And, she even tells us that the likes of FIdelity and other managers of money market funds that financed the bad mortgages held by SIVs would absorb the loss rather than pass it on to their investors.  If that is so, why does Fidelity deny it?

So, I think that we all need to be beware of the current market conditions.  SIVs and CDOs got their start and matured into the monsters that they are in anonymity coovered up by the offshore, zombie corpprtations invented by Citi and the their ilk.  It is time for openess and clarity -- not the obfuscation of  Rachel Barnard and Morningstar.

 

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Morningstar hasn't shone closer 12-02-2007, 6:53 PM | Post #2461486
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GeorgeBMac, I think your argument supports your conclusion. I have been wondering lately whether it is just my impression or has Morningstar's staff analysts been generally unhelpful in providing caveats and coping strategies during this ongoing financial fiasco. They seem to be more comfortable dealing with the status quo (i.e. star ratings, style boxes). By comparison, I have picked up more prescient warnings and useful information from posters on Morningstar Discuss, despite all the technical difficulties of this new format.
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Re: Morningstar hasn't shone maryc 12-07-2007, 9:05 PM | Post #2462871
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Trading Desk, your crack me up, I like your style.  You should be writing a blog.  Are you?

 Inherently, there is nothing wrong with collateralized debt.  The media has now made it out to be synonomous with risky loans.  However, prime debt is also collateralized. 

 As for M*, you can't expect them to be nimble--it isn't their gig.  They are long-term guys, geared toward value and patience.  For them to change their mind is something like turning an aircraft carrier around.  I learned this lesson the hard way as I rode the New Century elevator to the basement last winter, on their advice.  It was kind of stupid of me--one should know that when their yield is 15%, something isn't cricket. 

For M* advice, It all depends on your time horizon.  Most likely M* is absolutely correct that BAC, WB, WFC, BCS and so forth are screaming buys.  The question is, how patient are you?  I may be wrong (and often have been), but I wouldn't even buy LEAPs on these things--they might not recover in the next two years. 

I take exception with those  who say this credit thing is overblown--if left untreated, which it won't be, it could be extremely scary.  Pieces of paper are only worth what everyone thinks they are worth.  If things like commercial paper become illiquid or lose credibility, you will not even be able to keep cash and know that you'll receive it back intact later.  This would turn the world financial system completely topsy-turvy. 

 Can't wait for the books that will come out about the credit debacle.  Hopefully there will be some scholarly ones, rather than the usual sensationalistic stuff like, "How Citi and Merrill Almost Brought the World Financial System to its Knees,"  "The Secret Real Estate- Big Bank Conspiracy," and of course "How the Lame Duck President Saved Joe Six-Pack."

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