You don't have enough balls to duel Flakey. He is the man.

Vince

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Hello Munchkin Man, I hope all is well with you.
I'll fill in if that's ok.

DRAD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.06

MNKD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$9.22

ZGEN
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$12.19

ICO
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.98

RDWR
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$13.38

All the best,
Nick Drake

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I hope I haven't disappointed you or destroyed your faith in my integrity or stock picking methodology but I turned Munchie down for some very good reasons.

First, his rules specified a very small number of stocks, namely five, which makes it impossible to build a diversified portfolio which is what the vast majority of prudent, risk averse investors should and would want to do. I know this is an alien concept to Munchie's investment style but a diversified portfolio is the only vehicle which truly levels the playing field by eliminating sector similarity and emphasizes stock picking skill across the entire stock market instead of playing on sector volatility which can occur at any point in market history.

Second, his time frame is way too short, four months, which amounts to a pimple on an elephant's butt in terms of stock market history and takes no account of Mr. Market's 'peaks and valleys' which are an inevitable part of the real world environment of investing. In this context a skilled stock picker must be able to capitalize on the market's crests and withstand the vagaries of the market's inevitable declines while achieving excellent risk-adjusted returns through it all. My suggestion was trhat the time frame should be three to five YEARS and not just three or four months.

Third, and most importantly, Munchie's investment style pays little or no heed to the safety or financial viability of the companies he'd choose. Again this is something the vast majority or prudent, risk averse investors should or would want to take into account.

The result at least to my mind is that his proposal amounts to a meaningless contest no matter who'd prevail even if his extremely high risk 'momentum style' of investing might appear to confer upon him inherent advantage. I did however propose that if we could reach some kind of reasonable compromise over rules and conditions that I'd be more than happy to accept his challenge. Say twenty stocks over a period of at least one year with all sectors of the market being represented and no penny stocks included and with all trading costs and tax consequences accounted for. Those conditions are much closer to the 'real world' of investing and as such would present a challenge I'd be very happy to accept.

So far I have heard nothing in reply from Muchie and I frankly don't expect his reply. I hope you understand my position, Vince, and appreciate why I wouldn't accept a 'setup' just so Munchie could prove his extremely high risk methods valid for the vast majority of investors who can ill afford catastrophics losses which may result therefrom.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Flakey...Be careful in your replies to the Munchkin Man as he may report you to Morningstar Community Watch. So far, both posters have shown class in their disagreement...just don't be drawn in to a situation that could ultimately lead to your banning.

You have made a good case for diversification/safety and a long term approach to investing. Rather than pray that the uranium market turns around...a prudent momentum investor would have pulled the plug at least at -10% to -20...Agree?

In my case...I am investing in more dividend type stocks that grow dividends over time...so I really don't worry about the price of the stock as much as long as I know I am investing in a strong business. As long as there is not a dividend cut...the income should keep flowing. If the price goes down...yield increases.

We don't want the dividend tax cuts to be repealed though...LOL

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I think I have been courteous to Munchie as a person even while justifiably remaining very critical of his high risk strategy of momentum investing in financially marginal companies and their penny stocks. THAT PERSPECTIVE will NOT CHANGE as I consider his posts to be a potentially grave disservice to most prudent, risk averse long term investors on these forums with their retirement portfolios possibly riding on the balance.

Concerning your remarks about momentum investors bailing after a -10 or -20% decline I certainly agree with THAT even though it has little relevance to ME as this has never and never would be my style of investing as I consider it far too risky to my capital and financial health.

But be prepared for an end to the dividend tax cut, PreII, as I consider it unlikely that the democratic congress, especially with a dem in the WH, would be willing or politically able to extend or make permanent those cuts. Enjoy them while they last for another couple of years. )-:

But keep loadin' up the truck on those financially solid high yielders, PreII; you're doin' the right thing for the long haul!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey:

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for your reply to the Munchkin Man's original post.

You wrote:

"See my reply to your challenge on post #2051 of Off Topic/General Chat forum, Munchie."
_____

The Munchkin Man has read your reply.

The Munchkin Man regrets your decision to decline his challenge.

The Munchkin Man accepts your decision to decline his challenge.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Ivyman:

You wrote:

"You don't have enough balls to duel Flakey. He is the man."
_____

Huh?

The Munchkin Man is the one who challenged Mr. Flakey to the duel.

The Munchkin Man's stock picks for this duel are forever etched in the annals of cyberspace history and cannot be erased.

Win, lose, or draw, there is no escape.

A retraction of any or all of the Munchkin Man's stock picks for this duel would be a display of cowardice and would constitute grounds for a forfeit.

The Munchkin Man is the one who put his picks on the line for all who inhabit the entire universe of cyberspace to see.

Mr. Flakey is the one who turned the Munchkin Man down.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Hello Nick Drake!

Thank you very much for writing to the Munchkin Man.

You wrote:

"Hello Munchkin Man, I hope all is well with you."
_____

Thank you, Nick.

The Munchkin Man is in the process of recovering from the effects of some choppy seas he encountered along the voyage of life during the past year.

The Munchkin Man his righted his ship and is now back on course.

The Munchkin Man intends to stay on course before and after his ship comes in.
______________________________

You asked:

"OK if I take Mr. Flakey's place?"
_____

Yes!

You are most welcome to do so.
_____________________________

You wrote:

"I'll fill in if that's ok."
_____

The Munchkin Man is delighted and is jumping up and down with joy that you have accepted the Munchkin Man's friendly challenge.
____________________________________

You posted the following picks:

DRAD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.06

MNKD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$9.22

ZGEN
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$12.19

ICO
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.98

RDWR
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$13.38
_______

Very interesting!

Thank you!

The Munchkin Man has printed out a copy of your picks and has placed it inside a manila file folder the Munchkin Man has designated and labeled for this contest.

The Munchkin Man wishes you the best of success in this contest.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey:

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for taking the time to explain the rationale for your decision to decline the Munchkin Man's challenge to his stock picking duel.

You wrote:

"I turned Munchie down for some very good reasons."
_____

The Munchkin Man is gratified to hear that you believe in your "very good reasons."

The Munchkin Man believes that your decision to decline the Munchkin Man's stock picking duel is based upon your good faith in your "very good reasons."
_____________________________________

You wrote:

"First, his rules specified a very small number of stocks, namely five, which makes it impossible to build a diversified portfolio which is what the vast majority of prudent, risk averse investors should and would want to do."
_____

The annual Morningstar Stock Picks Contest is also based upon a selection of five stocks for each contestant. Do you decline to participate in these contests for the same reason?
____________________________________

You wrote:

"I know this is an alien concept to Munchie's investment style but a diversified portfolio is the only vehicle which truly levels the playing field by eliminating sector similarity and emphasizes stock picking skill across the entire stock market instead of playing on sector volatility which can occur at any point in market history."
_____

Your point is well taken.

However, this is only a contest.
______________________________________

You wrote:

"Second, his time frame is way too short, four months, which amounts to a pimple on an elephant's butt in terms of stock market history and takes no account of Mr. Market's 'peaks and valleys' which are an inevitable part of the real world environment of investing."
_____

In the grand scheme of life and stock market history, is a period of four months really that much less significant than the period of twelve months that governs the Morningstar Stock Picks Contest?
____________________________

You wrote:

"In this context a skilled stock picker must be able to capitalize on the market's crests and withstand the vagaries of the market's inevitable declines while achieving excellent risk-adjusted returns through it all. My suggestion was trhat the time frame should be three to five YEARS and not just three or four months."
_____

Are you saying that a time frame of 3 years for the Munchkin Man's stock picking duel would be acceptable to you?

If so, consider it done.

Pick 5 stocks and the winner will be the contestant whose 5-stock portfolio has achieved the greater percent gain (or the lesser percent loss) by the close of the last market trading day of the year 2010.
_________________________

You wrote:

"Third, and most importantly, Munchie's investment style pays little or no heed to the safety or financial viability of the companies he'd choose. Again this is something the vast majority or prudent, risk averse investors should or would want to take into account."
_____

If what you are saying above applies to the Munchkin Man's contest stock pick selections, then wouldn't this give you the advantage?

The Munchkin Man would like to remind you that this is only a friendly contest.
________________________________

You wrote:

"The result at least to my mind is that his proposal amounts to a meaningless contest no matter who'd prevail even if his extremely high risk 'momentum style' of investing might appear to confer upon him inherent advantage."
_____

The Munchkin Man commends you for having a concession speech written well in advance.
________________________________

Due to space limitations, the Munchkin Man needs to post the continuation of his reply in his next message in this thread.

TO BE CONTINUED.....

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905