Mutual Funds

Favorite Emerging Markets Fund

Globaltrotter — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:48:50 GMT

I use Acadian Emerging Markets AEMGX and MACSX Matthews Asian Growth and Income

Predicting Which Funds will be Popular/Unpopular

oildog — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:37:27 GMT

If only we could make money off of predicting the popularity of mutual funds. A few years ago, several of us predicted that funds like PRPFX and YACKX would get a lot of attention once the lousy performance in the 1990s started falling off the 10 year charts. That's an extreme example, but it's something we should pay attention to because the 10 year charts will be moving through a beginning period that had a lot of volatility (1999-2002). Funds can go from looking spectacular to looking miserable (or vice versa) overnight. Those charts can exert a very powerful psychological bias on how you see funds. In my opinion, something like 90%+ of investors evaluate funds based on trailing performance alone, so we're in for some interesting times.

What is likely to happen in the coming years? Here are a few thoughts:

1. On the whole, value funds will become very popular for the next couple of years and then fall off the map. Many of these funds had lousy returns in the late 1990s as they didn't participate in the tech boom, but they had spectacular relative returns from 2000-2002. That means the 10 year returns will look great until about 2011-2012, and then they will start to look mediocre. This includes funds from families like Longleaf, Third Avenue, Yactkman, Oakmark, Fairholme, Dodge and Cox, etc.

2. "Aggressive" growth funds, large growth funds, and tech funds will start to get more attention as the brutal 2000-2002 bear market is wiped off the 10 year returns. Naive, young investors (and those with short memories) who do not remember the tech bubble will start to get attracted again to funds that promise aggressive growth.

3. Funds that have modest allocations to gold/precious metals will look like "steady eddie" funds and attract even more attention as the 10 year returns increasingly only include a time period during which gold has been in a bubble - e.g. PRPFX, SGENX. (this will only work if the bubble doesn't pop!)

Any other ideas?

Best,
Oildog

First Fund for a Young Investor

Sandman1 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:16:02 GMT

Hi,

I am very interested in starting to invest at a young age, and I'm just a bit tied up with which fund (or types for that matter) to start with. I am primarily looking for a long-term investment of 5-10 years of more. I have been looking at Large-Cap Blend Funds as well as Index funds for the past few days, but I cannot seem to find one that attracts me to invest in it.

I think I have a basic knowledge of Funds, and their properties, but could use insight from more experienced investors. I have completed the 100-200 courses under Mutual Funds and have done additional research on various sights seeking knowledge and advice pertaining Mutal Funds.

Right now I am 15 years old (16 in April). One of the other questions I'd like to ask is "Am I too young?" Of course I will have parental guidance with my investments, along with (hopefully) a financial advisor. I will not be tackling my first investment by myself. Basically, I would like some advice on types of mutual funds to invest in for starting out, as well as any other insight and comments you may have. Sorry If I'm not too clear in my post.

Thanks in advance!

Emerging Stocks May Rally 25% By The End o f The Year

nemesis — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:31:03 GMT

Emerging Market Stocks are poised to gain 25 percent by the end of next year, for the steepest two- year rally since 1989, as earnings surge and investors boost holdings in the fastest-growing economies, Morgan Stanley said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acJOivSZHQsw

Nemesis

Bruce Greenwald | First Eagle Value Investing

Kenster1 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:20:41 GMT

Q&A with Bruce Greenwald - Professor of finance at Columbia University and Director of Research at First Eagle Funds.

Link

Has the way you practice value investing changed as a result of the financial crisis?

We changed our focus on risk management. Many other value managers did as well, because they were blindsided.

There are three principles that I believe good risk managers and value managers should pursue to protect themselves from permanent impairment of capital and variance.

The first principle is that the quickest way to permanently impair your capital is to overpay for something. So you always want to have a margin of safety.

{.....}

I think the value community has learned this lesson. The guys like Marty Whitman who got burned were in financial services, where there were enormous amounts of leverage. We’ve learned that if you want to do a stub, which is a highly leveraged position, you want a five- to six-times upside, because the downside is zero. You’ve got to start thinking in those terms. People have learned to think about leverage differently and to be warier of leverage, and only be willing to do it in a restricted part of a diversified portfolio.

Small Cap Funds...Index Or Not

Riprock — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:21:22 GMT

Hi,

With all the ambivalance towards small-cap funds lately, do you think a small cap growth index fund is a better choice than a concentrated stock pickers small cap growth fund. The two funds I am using as holdings are Janus Triton--JATTX...and Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index--VISGX. Is an index fund a good idea for the next 6-12 months? I have been very happy with both funds.

Thanks Riprock

VWINX and BERIX

bobpa — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:00:01 GMT

I have both of these funds (Wellsley Income and Berwyn Income) and am looking for one more fund that would be closely similar. Any suggestions?

Is that the death rattle of Exwax I hear ...

McMontana — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:03:55 GMT

... or am I overinterpreting? Manning & Napier World (Exwax) is growing like a waistline in a donut bakery, more than doubling from $2.2B to $4.6B in AUM in the last four months. The publicity must be driving it (from M* and I assume other sources).

What has been an essentially all-cap fund with 30-40% in mid-caps is piling on the assets, and the question in my mind is whether it will continue to be able to hold a reasonable number of stocks of a range of cap sizes like it's done in the past.

As one not-so-promising indicator, they've outsourced shareholder services, and in my account the transition has been pretty bad.

What say you, Exwax holders?

New portfolio at Wellstrade

somesh — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:21:39 GMT

We are thinking of creating a new WT account with the following funds. Could anyone can suggest on our selection of the funds? This investment will be for at least 10 years. There willl not be any monthly addition to this account.

Name	Ticker	% Weight
Berwyn Income	BERIX	6.36
Fairholme	FAIRX	9.08
Fidelity New Markets Income	FNMIX	5.98
Fidelity Advisor Small Cap I	FSCIX	6.09
Homestead Short-Term Bond	HOSBX	5.14
Heartland Select Value	HRSVX	7.12
Oakmark Equity & Income I	OAKBX	9.22
Oppenheimer Developing Markets Y	ODVYX	7.89
Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt	PENNX	6.46
T. Rowe Price Latin America	PRLAX	6.78
TCW Total Return Bond I	TGLMX	5.94
Scout International	UMBWX	7.91
Vanguard Dividend Growth	VDIGX	7.95
Yacktman Focused	YAFFX	8.06

Bear Market Performance in Investment Decisions

dtconroe — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:59:29 GMT

When discussing appropriate funds for portfolios, I have noticed that some of the very conservative, risk averse competitors, have set bear market loss performance as a strong measure of the worth of the fund. I have seen several indicate that a 20% loss for a conservative allocation fund in 2008 is just too much, and only funds with 10% or less are acceptable. I have seen others say that you can only evaluate bear market loss in conjunction with how rapidly it recouped its losses after the bear market. Any thoughts on how to properly evaluate bear market performance in the context of risk averse investing?

dtconroe

Is China’s Currency Manipulation Coming to a Head? = Not Good For Global Investing?

Limoman — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:09:34 GMT

Think this artilce has validity? and if so, not good for Global Investing?

Is China’s Currency Manipulation Coming to a Head?

A Currency Policy Crisis Is Upon Us … | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter

"I think we could see one of two scenarios:

A very low probability scenario − China floats its currency. That means the Chinese economy is in for dramatically slower growth and the world is in for inflation — higher costs of production and higher final prices on goods. This scenario is a path toward creating sustainable economic growth for world economies. But it would result in a slow rebuilding process with a lower standard of living.

A high probability scenario − China doesn’t play ball. China either resists all together or it attempts to pacify the world by returning to its slow crawl toward appreciating the yuan (the most likely case). In this scenario, I expect the world to quickly grow impatient, for political tensions to mount, and for major tariffs to hit Chinese goods. I think this has the ability to sink the global economy back into recession, and probably depression.

Both scenarios are major disappointments for those who have anticipated a sharp recovery in global economic activity. That’s a major blow to risk appetite. And a blow to risk appetite is bad for global stocks, bad for commodities and likely good for the safe haven appeal of the U.S. dollar."

My watch list funds

FD1000 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:24:57 GMT

Yesterday was a down day...I know you can't look at one day BUT these funds behaved as expected almost like 2008.

first number is for one day, second for 2008.

Indexes 11/19/09 2008

FSMKX SP500 -1.34% -37.1%

FSIVX International index -1.76% - 41.4%

Global

IVWIX -0.53% N/A great

SGENX -0.84% -21.1% great

WASAX -1.79% -26 OK..volatile

TEDIX -0.79% -26.7 good

Small cap

ICMAX -1.19% -7.1 good since IWM was down 2.5%. great for 2008

Big cap

FAIRX -0.89% -30% daily great. 2008 OK.

YAFFX -0.75% -23.5 great.

Mod Balanced

OAKBX -0.82% -16.2 daily good. 2008 great

JABAX -0.74% -15.2 daily good. 2008 great

FPACX -0.36% -20.6 daily. 2008 good

PRWCX -0.71% -27.2 daily good. 2008 OK.

PRPFX -0.61% -8.4% great both

Conservative Balanced all great

BERIX -0.39% -10.2 great both

EXDAX -0.24% -5.0 great both

HSTRX -0.00 +6.3 great both

Determining a muni's private activity bond exposure.

carman — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:34:37 GMT

I'm interested in determining how to estimate a muni bond funds exposure to private activity bonds because these bonds increase the liklihood of trigering the AMT at tax time. I looked on the Tax tab for several munis and did not see a private activity bond line item, but you may have to read between the lines to derive the number.

Any thoughts on the subject would be appreciated.

John

DODFX: Finally back in the black!

jagor — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:41:06 GMT

I just noticed that my position in DODFX is actually back in positive territory for the first time in what has seemed an eternity.

As of yesterday's close I was up +2.52% on my original purchase price of $32.13 per share.

Just to show how far DODFX had fallen, it is up +50.41 YTD.

But DODFX looks great compared to AEMGX. It may seem impossible to believe, but even though its shares have skyrocketed over +75% YTD, I am still almost -42% in the red! [My purchase price was 28.50 and yesterday's close was 16.58.]

Jagor

Dumped FAIRX Yesterday

jagor — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:43:49 GMT

Yesterday I liquidated my entire position in the Fairholme Fund FAIRX. I had been contemplating this move for some time, particulalry after following one of the many Fairholme threads on this forum, which raised numerous questions about this fund and its management.

I collected a 8.33% profit on my investment, which I think is pretty darn good, considering the fact that FAIRX lost a third of its value in 2008. [Now I know that 8.33% may not seem like a lot to some people, but as a good friend of mine always says, "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit."]

I think it is very important not to fall in love either with an investment or with a mutual fund manager, no matter how seductive they may appear and no matter how much hoopla and hype are written about them.

I am very happy with my decision, and intend to invest the proceeds in an income-producing investment.

Jagor

IVWIX

Racqueteer — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:22:48 GMT

I own some; understand the appeal. However, part of that appeal is based on an expected performance similar to that of First Eagle, yes? While IVWIX separated itself from the other world allocation funds at inception (which I attribute more to a lack of baggage than anything else), during the recovery it has lagged SGIIX as well as the world allocation benchmark itself. In addition, MALOX and WASAX have both overtaken it recently. It looks a little "flat".

Of course this is short-term thinking, but we only HAVE short-term for this fund. It seems to me that maybe its recent performance warrants some discussion? Seems to be playing things a LOT safer; lots of bonds, LOTS of "non-classified", not a lot of stocks, and a generous helping of cash. VERY defensive. Not necessarily a BAD thing, but at odds with everyone else at this point. Comments/insights?

HIINX & MACSX

NEWTEACHER — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:52:07 GMT

Good Morning,

Currently have HIINX which has alot of its portfolio in Western Europe (56%). I am getting ready to purchase MACSX which covers me in Asia. Any other international funds that I should be looking at. I dont know alot about international funds and would appreciate any suggestions that you can offer. I am getting ready to max out my ROTH this year by purchasing IVWIX & MACSX. I would like suggestions as to what I can put my 2010-2011 ROTH money into. If you have any other advice for my portfolio please let me know. I have around 20 years before I retire. My portfolio will be as follows:

OAKBX 28%

FAIRX 28%

IVWIX 11%

MACSX 11%

HIINX 11%

RYSEX 11%

Minimal Exposure

dkmcconlog — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:23:04 GMT

Simple question: Is there a mutual fund that invests exclusively in futures and options to maintain long exposure to an equity market - large, small, foreign?

Many funds (BRBPX, HSGRX, GATEX) use one kind of hedging strategy or another - but virtually all hold equities outright and are trying to limit downside risk.

Using ETF's to Profit on Falling Dollar?

Limoman — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:59:25 GMT

This Artcle sounds good..but is it Too Late? Just like for Gold,Commodities?

Profit from the Falling Dollar with ETFs | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter

If you’re looking for a direct play on the falling dollar, it’s hard to do better than PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN). UDN gives you the equivalent of a short position in the index I charted for you above — a combination of the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona and the Swiss Franc.

Scottrade.....Ameritrade.....Etrade.......or others??????

NEWTEACHER — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:19:13 GMT

I currently have a roth with Scottrade but have been a little upset with their customer service. My wife is getting ready to start her own Roth and I want to know what other sites you might suggest for a ROTH.

Is there a a site that tends to be user friendly?

Any suggestions would be a big help

Global Investing

Kenster1 — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:24:39 GMT

LINK

"When you go into a store, people generally look for the best products at the best price, regardless of where they're made," says William Kennedy, who manages the Fidelity International Discovery Fund (FIGRX | Get Prospectus ). "I do the same thing with stocks."

...

China's economy is expected to grow 10% this year, and big government spending has kept growth humming. South Korea has bounced back strongly, and another regional leader, Australia, in October raised interest rates — all signs Asia is "rebounding fast," the International Monetary Fund said recently.

Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer at Matthews International Capital Management, says this strength reflects rising Asian consumption and a growing middle class — long-term trends that favor growth.

...

Fidelity's Kennedy is starting to take some profits from the big gains in emerging markets as he sees opportunities rising in Europe.

Europe is coming back more slowly from the downturn than Asia. But its large industrial companies are not wasting the chance to use the downturn as a reason to shed costs and become more efficient — something that was tougher for them to do politically when economies were growing.

"There's lots of cost-cutting going on in Europe" that has yet to be fully appreciated in earnings estimates, and that could boost corporate profits in an upturn, Kennedy says.

Fund Spy buying

Melissa — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:46:44 GMT

Is Fund Spy worth buying for 17 dollars ?

thanks

Books

awstauffer — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:31:05 GMT

Hey everyone,

I'm not sure if this is the correct place to ask this but since I'm new to all of this I thought this might be the place. Within the next 6 months I will start my investing portfolio. I am going 100% mutual funds as I have been told this is the best way to go. I want to be able to handle my investing on my own. I know a little but am very eager to learn a whole lot more. I just don't know where to start?

So I am asking... What are some books I can read that will really expand my knowledge as well as help me in my investing future. I just don't know what authors to trust and which are the ones to really hold close to. Thanks so much in advance.

-Adam

Still buying MACSX at this level

Globaltrotter — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:56:20 GMT

I have 30 % in MACSX off the bottom

Are people still adding here?

MorningStar fund rating

karthikeyan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:51:35 GMT

Hi All,

I am karthik. I am a newbie to this website as well as to finance domain. I have a basic question regarding fund rating.

what is mean by fund rating?

how morning star give rating to a fund? i mean what kind of methods does morning star use to rate a fund?

say for example,MLOX - 4 star

how?

Regards

Karthik