HandsOn

Re: Week of July 14

Santa Cruz — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:18:17 GMT

uncleharley:
For the short term, I think we have more down coming before the market turns up. It looks like this week will end about where it started, thanks to government intervention.
uh

I agree and I think this bounce was weak note the rising price but falling volume.

I am ZERO for 2 this week, BUT If we get a crappy day Monday I going to buy some UCPIX.

Re: Week of July 14

Santa Cruz — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:11:42 GMT

uncleharley:
For the short term, I think we have more down coming before the market turns up. It looks like this week will end about where it started, thanks to government intervention.
uh

I agree,

UH,

I bought TRAMX a while back cause you guys were talking about it.

--> -->

Trade Date

Transaction Type

Account Name

Price

05/12/2008

EXCHANGE TO SUM CASH

Africa & Middle East Fund - Joint Tenant

$13.99

10/31/2007

EXCHANGE FROM SUM CASH

Africa & Middle East Fund - Joint Tenant

$11.92

I have sold it and looking for re-entry in OCT-NOV I am hoping for $12.25.

Am I off base?

Re: Week of July 14

Racqueteer — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 23:39:39 GMT

Well, I have to say I'm surprised at today's result, although one could argue that the gain was modest enough that it was ignorable. I can't help feeling that we've had a very rapid runup, and the minute weakness develops, things can easily turn. Although I'm now anxious about whether or not to get in, the runup did provide some information about which funds are benefitting from a decline in oil and/or a rise in financials (and which are not), and where (temporary) support is located. That could be helpful in my decisionmaking process.

I THINK we're going to pause here until news moves us one way or the other. Oil is kind of hanging in at the moment, the market rally seems to have lost some steam, but shorting seems to be less "energetic" as well. Still, any weakness may cause people to take profits from their financial positions, possibly resulting in a rapid pullback. I'm itching to buy, but a couple of funds I'm interested in are moving against the market, so it seems as if there's some benefit for me whichever way the market goes. I remain more concerned about capital preservation than I am about making gains. At the end of the day, I can't see that anything has fundamentally changed in the market; perception is another thing altogether.

Re: Week of July 14

uncleharley — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:42:37 GMT

For the short term, I think we have more down coming before the market turns up. It looks like this week will end about where it started, thanks to government intervention.

Re: Week of July 14

Lili.. — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 02:06:18 GMT

galderm:

A six week bear market rally for SPX to the 200dma which will end badly this fall. Gordon

I think whether or not it will end badly depends on who is elected. If it is Obama, yeah, it will end badly. If that jackass gets elected, I am selling while the cap gains tax is still reasonable.

Re: Week of July 14

galderm — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 01:52:14 GMT

I'm ready for the ride up. Oil dropping, dollar firming, financials doing better than expected. I have believed it was coming, I just didn't know what would make it happen.

A six week bear market rally for SPX to the 200dma which will end badly this fall. No point in ignoring the rally. Just looking for an entry point.

Gordon

Re: Week of July 14

Lili.. — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 01:34:47 GMT

I ended up buying a balanced fund instead of a bond fund. I did this because I think the drop in oil is a reflection of demand destruction, which is real and a turn around by the American people on their feelings toward nuclear power and offshore drilling and because I think the last two days have proven to me the high price of oil is not all about supply and demand and not all about the dollar - a large part is about speculating and momentum investing and groups of investors (pension funds, ETF investors, endowments) who previously didn't invest in oil now treating commodities as a new asset class when they had not in large numbers in the past.

I don't doubt that we will see the market come down again, maybe even tomorrow as Google and Microsoft disappointed in their earnings report. But I can't pick the bottom with exact certainty, the market is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator and I think we are in better shape than the doom and gloom crowd thinks we are in. I base that last statement in part on what I see around me - lines waiting to buy the iphone, parents buying laptops for their kids in preparation for the new school year, people buying gas efficient cars (yes, people are buying cars, just not SUVs and trucks and hummers (which no one should have ever bought in the first place)). I don't see too many people buying middle of the road real estate yet, but as Trump showed us today, they are buying the high end property. Palm Beach and Manhattan ain't on sale.

Re: Week of July 14

Santa Cruz — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:26:27 GMT

On Monday Bought UAPIX sold it Tuesday

should have held and sold today.

Sold UCPIX today

So the market will probably go down tomorrow

Re: Week of July 14

Racqueteer — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:03:24 GMT

Things have gotten a little quiet around here lately <g>. So... We got a rally based on govt interference, good results from at least one financial house, and a definite crack in energy. A lot of that appears to have come from short covering of various kinds that led to profit taking by at least some of the energy longs. We got some misses today after hours, so I've got to think that we'll see profit taking from the runup tomorrow resulting in a down day. Oil MIGHT rebound, imo. Monday? Heck if I know.

Things are looking more like a crap shoot now, where previously a nice steady decline appeared to be in the works. We needed an excuse for a rally and got it. The only question that really matters is, have the fundamentals actually changed over the last two days, or will the market resume its decline? Is this a sucker rally, a trading opportunity, or a real breakout?

Interestingly, some of the funds I've been looking at buying have declined, as they are/were apparently biased to oil and against financials. Works for me, of course, but also tells me that the potential "bounce" is going to come from other places, and I have time to enter these funds, perhaps at lower levels. Again, works for me!

Re: Week of July 14

Santa Cruz — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 19:27:06 GMT

bought some UCPIX today

hopefuly the ^RUT is in a channel

Re: Week of July 14

Aalan88 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:37:26 GMT

With the increasing threat to the dollar, even cash exposure seems risky.

I used today's apparent "short term bottom" (?) as an opportunity to buy SLV, GLD, and stocks denominated in Swiss francs and Chinese Yuan --about 1% each

Not enough, but a bit of a hedge is better than none.

Re: Week of July 14

Racqueteer — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 16:31:36 GMT

Can you clarify your thinking on that for me? I'm still hanging in there with cash, although I'm starting to dip my toes, very slowly, into CGMFX on this current pullback in oil and commodities. I'll be eventually taking small positions in this fund and a couple others to complement my balanced fund positions. Waiting awhile longer to finalize things still seems like a very good idea.

Re: Week of July 14

Lili.. — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:14:51 GMT

Racqueteer:
Either way, all I can see is DOWN at this point. Buying is starting to look good, but I think there's a fair bit further down ahead of us.

I am buying bond funds after hearing Bernanke's testimony today.

Re: Week of July 14

Racqueteer — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 22:51:37 GMT

I keep watching the DOW and S&P support levels, and I think at least the DOW 11,000 level has been breached. S&P seems to be hanging on, but we may have lost the 1250-1240 level today as well. Tomorrow will likely answer the question one way or another. DOW 10,500 seems to be a real possibility. S&P has some support at 1200, but I'm not sure how strong it is; 1100 could be the next level there. I'm having trouble seeing anything on the horizon to trigger a rally. Commodities have weakened, or are showing weakness anyway, and if they fail there doesn't seem to be anything to rally around. Lower oil, for example, doesn't seem to be enough to send things higher any more. At this point, a couple big drops on consecutive days would probably produce the fear and panic we need to clean things out. Otherwise, we maybe nibble our way down the way we have been for another couple months. Either way, all I can see is DOWN at this point. Buying is starting to look good, but I think there's a fair bit further down ahead of us.

Re: Week of July 14

Lili.. — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 01:22:18 GMT

playbook:

Please forgive my ignorance, but why would bond prices for treasuries fall on rumors of a government takeover of GSE's? I can see why if the rumor was no government takeover, but the headline was "treasuries fall on rumor of government takeover" Wouldn't a government takeover mean that the implict backing is now explict and prices would go up and yields lower to match treasuries? Also, why did investors move money out of safe-haven debt because of the Fannie,Freddie report as another headline read? Why move out of safe debt during troubled times? Did they fear that treasuries were going to lose their AAA rating?
Playbook

The WSJ had an explanation for the fall in treasuries - people were speculating that the government would now explicitly back the Fannie/Freddie debt, which made them as safe as treasuries but paid a higher yield. So treasuries went down.

Interestingly, the WSJ in one report indicated that the Freddie/Fannie short term debt was not selling well and in another that the long term debt was. That I can't figure out.