fredP: Hi Chin
I agree with buy low / sell high but its not that simple. Part of the market has done very well YTD so I've been taking profits in energy, agriculture and basic materials .At this point in time I'm only 30% equities and I'll take the loss of opportunity risk that Jerry mentioned because of what I think is clearly a very shaky and uncertain economic future.
If one buys stocks or stocks wrapped in a mutual fund the point Jubak is making is the same. Bear markets have similar patterns with small rallies and always end in capitulation and a big decline.
Jubak is not looking in a rear view mirror he is looking forward as does the market. "Safety first" ? I'll agree with Jim.
Take care Chin
Hi fredP,
You don't see there is more than one market. Jubak is looking in the rear-view, at more recent results, and claiming what is happening is going to continue to happen. This is the cowards way out. Those that follow these gurus are just investing on faith, as they sound like they know what they are talking about.
The same would hold true if I were to believe you, or believe Tim in that he claims what he has done for the last 40 years. This would be just more faith based investing.
I choose to find my own realities as opposed to following the Wall Street Gods, but rather reasoning and common sense.
What I see, when I see what would have happened had I concerned over dropping prices, and selling as they dropped from historical data shows me I would have lost return. I would not have suffered as much of a downturn, but asset allocation takes care of that. What I see if I look at what happened to those who followed the Wall Street Gods is they lost double what the S&P 500 did in the down market -- per the DALBAR studies.
There are more than one index fund, and, in fact, every index fund has beaten the S&P 500 over the last 10 years as well. As long as you look at the one and only market for your decisions, which you most likely have to do with individual equities, you may need to time the market. I set my portfolio up so I don't have to.
"Saftey first" works, as long as you recognize this safety comes at a cost.
Chin
