Pete,

What fund flows will tell us is what has already been confirmed repeatedly: many "investors" chase performance and end up buying high and selling low (though we do agree that TREA tends to move at such a snail's pace that it is as good a candidate as any for some form of timing).

Here's a recent exchange about this matter from the Morningstar site, with Valueinvestor of Boglehead fame participating.

 http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/thread/2534638.aspx

Bob U.