Solar Stocks
Aalan88
07-09-2008, 12:25 AM | Post #2537063
| 0 |
  |
|
Anatole:Aalan:
You mentioned LDK and TSL as your favorite solar stock. Any particular reason for that? As I understand right now there are 2 groups in solar energy group, Cadmium (used by FSLR) and Silicon (used by rest of solar) plus some other technology under developlement like copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS) solar cells.
From the M* analyst reports it looks like it is labor intensive process to make silicon wafers. So companies with manufacturing facilities outside of developed world (e.g. in China) would have cost efficiency advantage.
Other than cost I can't tell difference which china based solar company will be the winner. M* seems to like JA Solar better. Is there any solar based ETF?
Hi Anatole--
I'll start with the last question first. Yes, there are two solar-only ETFs: KWH and TAN. I have some TAN. There are also broader alternative-energy ETFs, GEX and PBW that have a lot of solar. The problem I have with them is mainly that their volatility is a negative in the current market. I'll go longer in them when we can see the Bear's back.
I don't know that we need to pick one solar company to be "the winner." By analogy, say it's 1908 and the big new technology is the automobile. There are dozens of independent producers. You can invest in Buick, Oldsmobile, Cadillac, Elmore, Oakland, Reliance, or Rapid. Which one do you pick? Answer---it doesn't matter. They all merged within a year to form GM. You win.
So, I picked my solar stock mostly on valuation. Trina, Fwd PE 7-8, PEG 0.58; vs. FSLR, Fwd PE 44, PEG 2.33. Of course there are other variables, but I can't know everything, so I learn what I can and try to intuit the most elegant solution. I won't always be right, but neither are the pros.
Topics
analyst report
China
class
solar energy
Valuation
View Complete Thread
