fredP:

BTW: Jim Jubak had a nice article today "Waiting out the Bear?". He doesn't think it's time to jump back into market even though some are saying the worst may be over. 

Hi fredP,

I imagine more are saying it is not than are it is. This is what you call rear-view mirror advice. As long as you stick with what is happening right now, no one is going to question your wisdom.

You are obviously a stock picker. If you were to follow what everyone else thought, would you ever find a stock that offered value? The same holds true with the markets. As long as you go with the crowd, you will never find a value price in the market.

The fact that the market is down 20% now means it is selling at a 20% discount. If it goes down further, it is selling at a better bargain.

It is only those who can sell while it is going up, and buy when it is going down who capture value. As long as you think like everyone else does, you have no advantage. In order to be successful in investing, whether it macro or micro, you need be a little contrarian. You can't believe everything you read.

Jubak does not know any more than anyone else does when the market will go back up. The reason the market is going down right now is because everyone who buys stocks are thinking like Jubak. If you wait till they think it OK to go back in, they will have already beat you to the draw.

Chin