While 2 days of selloff does not mean that the energy/oil complex would be giving up its bull run, I do feel that there are signs we are in the 8th or 9th inning of this bull run. They are:

• OECD (developed markets) oil demand is finally crumbling, and EMs demand growth has slowed considerably,
• We have negative refining margins in most major refining centers in the world, including USGC, Europe & Singapore. EMs are also seeing a lot lower refining margins, resulting in slower buying of crude.
• Thus, refiners are cutting back runs, which will result in more unsold crude,
• Crude oil inventories are starting to build so that soon, the sellers will either have to reduce prices to sell or shut in production. The latter is extremely unpalatable at these still extremely high prices.
• Don't expect product imports to rise much, as it is getting very expensive (freight costs have more than tripled to over $6 to 10/bbl). No cheap imports anymore.
• NYMEX crude likely has room to fall very substantially, but it could find support somewhere above $100/b (This is not T/A based, but just a gut feel).
• The oil price shock takes anywhere from 6 to 9 months to work its way thru, so we will keep feeling the effects of 2008 price shock all the way thru 2009.
• Lastly, govt's real response to this price shock is non-existent because of lame duck presidency and no particularly heartwarming talk from the Prez hopefuls on energy policy (Some talk such as WPTax on oil companies is actually a discouraging thing for adding new domestic production).

Just thought that we may be in for some real volatile ups and downs in the oil price, but with a negative bias ..... Anil