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Re: Tuesday bschutz  07-08-2008, 7:56 PM | Post #2536999
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I'm composing notes to myself on bear market strategies and trading tips aiming to create a post on the topic, and in the spirit of some above posts (and the good market day today) am providing the following tidbit. Simply said, I'm agreeing with Norbert that "IMHO this is a nice time to let Mr. Market play his little games while we patiently wait for the smoke to clear."

I know this advice is old hat to the savvy regular posters, so it's for lurkers like myself that I post this:

"Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling." (source)

And with a bit more specifics:

"Bear markets in stocks give investors two chances to lose their shirts – first during the initial decline, and again if you get back in too early.  (i.e.) I'm starting to see a lot of advice saying that we could see the bottom in stocks as early as the historically weak months of August, September or October. I think that's early. Watch out if that prediction becomes the conventional wisdom. That would be a setup for one last bear market rally, the last good chance to lose money in this bear, and then a final washout." (source)

-Brian

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