I have taken the liberty of copying and pasting below a post by Tramper Al from the specified forum; here it is.
I've tried to make this point a couple of times
in the midst of a heated "Is this a good time to buy TIPS" thread, but
generally been ignored. May I try again?
It seems to me that TIPs are a CPI-indexed product and that the
bond market knows this very well, and thus offers me exactly the real
rate on TIPS that it ought to, given the market's CPI forecast and an
insurance premium
But the CPI woefully underestimates inflation, you say? Or your personal inflation rate, or whatever?
If TIPS were instead indexed to a different, or a better, or a
bigger indicator of inflation, would that really matter to me, buying
TIPS?
For example, say the Treasury came out with Double TIPS, that were
indexed to 2xCPI, that is twice the current index. The bond market
would understand this, charge a premium based on it, and then offer me
a real rate accordingly, yes?
Or a health care inflation index could be used. Or food + energy
only, or whatever. What would it matter, if the bond market is
efficient and I don't presume to have inside information?
So I guess my point is this. It is the collective bond market that
determines what I'm going to be paid for owning TIPS, not the Treasury
or the Government in general. And it does not particularly matter what
CPI is, as long as there is a collective knowledge as to what it is and
what is expected of it.
If you want to read the entire thread - it is short as of now, you can do so via this Link
Ray