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Re: Professionals Scorn TIPS and CPI grabiner  07-07-2008, 6:47 PM | Post #2536555
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Investors should purchase derivatives that exploit concerns about inflation more efficiently than TIPS, Morgan Stanley advises. So-called swaptions allow investors to buy the right to purchase an inflation swap, in which one party agrees to pay a fixed rate in exchange for the inflation rate. Even if the CPI doesn't immediately rise, the instrument gains value on expectations for future increases.

This instrument is tied to the CPI, so it has all the advantages and disadvantages of the CPI as a measurement of inflation.  It thus fails to serve the purpose that the advisors quoted in the article are promoting it for.

Now, if there were an inflation swap linked to a Morgan Stanley Inflation Rate Index, with a transparent method for calculating the index, that might serve the purpose.  If Morgan Stanley can measure inflation better than the Treasury, they wouldn't need as much of a risk premium over TIPS as conventional bonds have over Treasuries.  However, I don't see any attempt to offer inflation-linked securities linked to anything other than the CPI, probably because those who don't trust the government to measure inflation properly trust Morgan Stanley even less. 

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