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Monday's Market -- Herding Roaches DeerIslander  07-07-2008, 5:26 PM | Post #2536489
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"In the Absence of Light, Darkness Prevails" ------ Prof. Bruttenholm

Today's various markets reminds me of how roaches behave when someone turns on the lights. A lot of scurrying around with little apparent sense of order to the action.

There were big moves in a lot of markets with a lot of intraday volatility but seemingly little purpose and a lot of expected correlations failed to materialize. A few things may be worth noting the .SPX tested its 2006 low of 1240 and for at least today that low held. However given the fact that Financials show no indication of putting in a bottom any .SPX support level must be viewed with suspicion. It is discouraging even with a big drop in the price of oil the market failed to advance. Decliners led Advancers better than 2:1 and there were 120 new lows for every new high. Approximately 20% of the NYSE set new lows today -- not what I would expected on a day oil finally had a meaningdul drop.

Although oil, commodities and precious metals sold off hard, the dollar also declined. Despite some flight to safety indications in bonds TIPs also declined.

The action in the Fins, the homebuilders and particualrly Fannie Mae clearly says the mortgage financial crisis is not over.

In early afternoon it looked we might get the long awaited .VIX spike but the .VIX sagged back as the averages worked back from their lows. No capitulation today.

For today at least short term trends were hard to recognize given the conflicting signals. That didn't stop the Talking Heads from pontificating. But unless you are a Roach Puncher it is a good market to just stand aside and wait.

Topics commodities correlation Fannie Mae mortgage precious metals View Complete Thread
 
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