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Re: The VIX puzzle: A Chicken or Egg Thesis norbertc  07-07-2008, 11:37 AM | Post #2536338
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bythenbrs:

Would you hedge (SPY) a hedge (BEARX) in this instance?  If you believed that the longer term trend for the market was still down, let's say 1150 (hat tip to UH), but you wanted to participate in the counter trend rally that several have suggested is near term likely, why not purchase SPY? 

[Perhaps trying to "time" a 3-5% rally is impractical or just not worth the effort?]

As I posted somewhere - I forget where - there have been at least two "high probability" trading situations YTD ... situations when all the stars were aligned.  One was the March Vix spike and the other was the overbought and fading April - May bear market rally. 

At present things are too messy IMHO. Anything could happen.  I'm laying low. 

HA!  I knew it.  Just while typing this post the Dow fell from +75 to -50. And it looks like crude prices have fallen too.  Doesn't make sense.  Anyway, I'm leaving this market to the pros.  Just walk away.

Topics Dow HEDGE SPY stars ytd View Complete Thread
 
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