Hi Al,

FWIW, I offered Bernstein’s study of the years 1966 - 1981 which were the worst post war years, and I have looked at starting in 1929 using the same 4% SWR.

The Trinity study looked at S&P 500 and long-term treasuries. Bernstein’s looked at a mix of large caps and small caps to more reflect the total market and 5 yr. treasuries. I just used the S&P 500 and 5 yr. treasuries for 1929.

The 5 yr. treasuries over long term treasuries make a huge difference, especially 1966 - 1981.

The 4% SWR would have worked in the worst periods.

Chin