ElLobo,
Our strategy is still a work in progress and your post is re-assuring that our general direction is feasible.
I have about 4 years to finish structuring our portfolio before we need to withdraw any money from it and if our savings rate and returns continue to do well, the anticipated withdrawal rate will decrease some. So, the 2.8% is a rough and probably high estimate of our withdrawal rate from the total portfolio. While the withdrawal % is nominal, I am hoping to grow the principal to roughly keep up with inflation by transferring to the "income bucket" some of the profits from the "growth bucket" in the years that growth does well and by returning some of the excess yield from the "income bucket" to the principal of the "income bucket," as you mentioned.
In Excel, I will track our portfolio by asset classes within the total portfolio according to MPT as well as within each bucket.
COLAs to social security and to our State of Fla pensions also reduce concerns over periods of investment income lagging inflation.Under worst case scenario, I think my wife and I could survive on just the social security and our two State of Fla pensions, but we probably would not be able to travel, eat out, ... like we had hoped. If Congress messes with social security, I'll need to re-think our strategy, but I perhaps they won't mess with those of us who have hit 60.
It sounds like directly purchasing individual bonds is probably not worth the hassle, especially since the investments in the "income bucket" will not be sold until my wife and I "kick the bucket," eliminating concerns over NAV declines due to, eg, "flights to quality" (assuming we are in corporate bond funds) and due to interest rate risk. However, when my wife and I do pass away, it would be nice if the NAV in the "income bucket" remained somewhat stable to pass on to our sons in addition to whatever is in the "growth bucket."
As you suggest, I still want to back-test our strategy using various 34-year historical periods (approximating a possible life-span of my wife or me to age 100 from retirement age of 66), for which I realize I may need to approximate returns using proxies for actual investment vehicles for most of these periods. Is there a good source for NAV and yield data for each VG fund going back to inceptions? I seem to recall that the data at the VG site is incomplete, especially for yields.
Your thoughts, appreciated.
Steve