http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4258181.ece
“Western energy executives invariably
insist that there is no plausible alternative to oil.”
When one
considers that the world’s transportation system runs almost entirely on oil,
it’s hard not to come to the above conclusion. Automobile, trucks, airplanes
and non-electric railroads are dependent on fuel refined from oil. There are
two difficulties in coming up with a “plausible alternative.” First is the
enormous amount of fuel needed to meet the transportation needs now met
with oil – and with an ever-increasing population, not likely to dramatically
decrease even in the face of continued price increases. The second is that
there is not any plausible alternative fuel that I’m aware of now being
developed that could replace oil in the foreseeable future.
Something
that would help a great deal – and will play an important role in the near
future – is increased use of electricity as a transportation fuel. We now have
electricity powered trains used mostly for commuters in dense urban areas.
Railroad electrification should be expanded for also hauling freight – instead of
the oil-fueled trucks that clog our interstates. Commuters can also benefit
from use of electricity in “plug-in hybrids,” hybrids, and battery powered
cars. This would of course increase the amount of electricity that would need
to be generated and transmitted – new power plants (nuclear for environmental
benefits) would be needed as well as upgrades to the transmission system and wouldn't be cheap. However, this
could and should be done.
Note that if
the problem really is transportation, windmills and solar cells aren’t going to play –
even though they always get mentioned. It’s time to start with projected needs
and plans for meeting them based on reality.
Jim