Hi Jerry,

Here are some actual and forecast numbers:

December 1961 (followed by 28% market loss over 6 months)

January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the following 20 months)

August 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months) )

March 2000 (followed by a 49% collapse in the S&P over the following 30 months)

My forecast (It ain't pretty):

October 2007 followed by a 50% collapse in the S&P over the next 18 months. I believe this bear market will be very severe because of the huge pull back in consumer spending brought on by higher fuel prices and inflation that will be stopped only after a lot of pain.

Take care,

Tony