Seems that we may be mixing apples and oranges here when we compare to Trinity, MCS, and other studies which are, as I understand it, income certain.

best,

Bill

+++++++++++++

Bill, apples and apples, oranges and oranges, with very minor differences on my part.

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From my web site:

Dividend Strategies versus Valuation Informed Indexing

I list the 30-Year Safe Withdrawal Rate for dividend strategies (dividend blend, delayed purchase and income investing) as 6.0% of the original balance (plus adjustments to match inflation). I list the 30-Year Safe Withdrawal Rate of Valuation Informed Indexing (with preferred stock and corporate bonds) as just under 5.5% (plus inflation).

The differences are smaller than indicated.

Dividend strategies provide a continuing income stream that grows a little faster than inflation. But the income is vulnerable to dividend cuts. Judging from the S&P500 index, this could be as deep as 25% worst case (to 75% of the original income stream after adjusting for inflation). The 6.0% withdrawal rate, worst case, is subject to a temporary setback to 4.5% (plus inflation).

With a dividend strategy, I avoid selling any shares. With Valuation Informed Indexing, I sell shares as a matter of routine.

I subject Valuation Informed Indexing to a strict withdrawal rate. I allow no temporary relief for bad times.

I also limit Valuation Informed Indexing stocks to the S&P500. However, it would still be Valuation Informed Indexing if I were to convert to a dividend exchange traded (index) fund such as DVY when valuations were attractive. This would be an advanced form of a delayed purchase. It would remove the 30-Year time frame of Valuation Informed Indexing. It would lock in a high withdrawal rate.

You can combine dividend strategies and Valuation Informed Indexing to your advantage.

Have fun.

John Walter Russell