I took a quick look at Siemens and it appears the global growth
story remains intact. Their top-line growth is great. It's
the bottom-line that's the problem. They've got a lot of
infrastructure projects on a fixed-cost basis and they're getting
squeezed by high raw material costs. And having problems with
labor shortages. With all the costs and delays, their margins are
taking a big hit and they're looking at ways to reduce costs.
Including layoffs and restructuring the company.
But their order book remains strong. For 2Q 08, they broke out their regional order growth like this:
- Africa/Near & Middle East/CIS (i.e. former USSR): 54%
- Germany: 21%
- Asia/Pacific: 19%
- Americas: 10%
- Rest of Europe: 6%
They expressly note these countries:
Russia: +119%
China: +23%
So their new orders support continuing growth in China and the former Soviet Union.
I think it's important that raw materials (no doubt high steel prices!)
are causing them problems. That's a big red flag. But it's
equally, if not more important, that DEMAND remains strong for
infrastructure projects.