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Re: Trusting your managers Wartybliggins  06-28-2008, 6:40 PM | Post #2533681
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     I guess the big fallacy here is that past returns guarantee that expections of future returns will be fulfilled.  As an LMVTX alumnus, I can assure you that you end up buying warm and fuzzy expectations rather than better odds of future returns.  Value investing isn't what it's cracked up to be.  It's for dummies.  Sure, a cheap beaten down stock can go up.  But it can also stay down for a long time.  Or it can get cheaper, more cheaper, as the months go by.  There is a wry symbolism to Bill Miller owning a huge yacht while his investors' hats are floating in Baltimore's Inner Harbor.

     And when a fund like FAIRX, which I considered was the best mutual fund out there, fills up with assets, is going through a lot of investment policy changes, and showing stronger linkage to a weakening market while making value investments, it might be time to jump ship, take a year or two off on a capital preservation cruise, and reconsider the fund when its new character is established.  After all, going down with the ship is expected of the captain, not the paying passengers.

Topics Bill Miller capital preservation cheap the best mutual Value Investing View Complete Thread
 
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