Pete--

Your point about models is well-taken.  But we have to live our lives in real time.

As you've doubtless noticed, I put consumption smoothing first, asset allocation second (and that includes equities).  But I'm speaking as a retiree.  For me, the most telling point about Norstad's piece is that he challenged what was and continues to be a glib assumption, one perpetuated by fund companies and way too many financial advisors (as distinguished from economists).

I'm basically a simple-minded guy who keeps remembering Maynard Keynes's observation that "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."   All the best, Bob U.