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Re: Regarding iron ore. garyp  06-26-2008, 7:49 AM | Post #2532708
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Eastern Europe has been a source of profits over the past several years - especially helped by Russian oil and east Europe banks. However, even EUROX is down YTD. Although I believe the decoupling scenario to some extent, that does not mean that we can't see simultaneous pullback across the global economy.

It should be remembered that - even though some countries may be able to continue a good level of trade with non-US customers, most all countries have a share of US paper (or do business with countries that do). That paper is looked at as an asset - facilitating their borrowings and subsequent development and growth. For instance, it enables China to 'subsidize' energy use to their citizens (not quite as much today as yesterday, but still significant).

Decreasing credit ratings (i.e. kind of like the devalued dollar)  decrease the value of foreign 'US credit assets' , and therefore their ability to use those assets for their growth. For example, in the extreme case, China may continue its' trade with other countries in a US pullback; but if it's 'savings account' - in US treasuries - became worthless, it would dramatically affect their 'wealth effect'.

So, some foreign investments may be worth making - but at this time - all should be made with caution - and watched as closely as one would watch a short play.

Topics China credit rating eastern europe Europe ytd View Complete Thread
 
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