I can't be certain oil is in a bubble but I think it is. Even if you are bullish and long oil or oil shares, you better have a good justification for the all-time high. theories cited by oil bulls to justify unprecedented price levels include the peak oil theory, supply shortage due to various political/social/engineering factors, and perpetually high demand growth in key developing countries such as China. I don't buy any of it but that's just me and I have been wrong for more than an year (Koala)
First of all, tell the truth on your blog. You've been wrong since Jan 2007 when Oil was at $50, and you disagreed with me on backing up the track on the Oil sector. That makes you wrong for 2 and a half years now, not one year as you claimed.
Second, you want good reasons to be bullish on Oil? Read careful what I'm going to say
The Oil spike of '71 to 1980 had only ONE reason. Oil went inverse of the falling Dollar
The high oil of today, has four reasons.
#1 Is a shortage situation, and peak oil
#2 A weaker dollar
#3 LOW interest rates,
#4 Third world developing nations driving high demand
For the above 4 reasons, even the $200 projection is way too low. $160/bbl today would equal 1980's $42 adjusted for inflation
