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Re: PRPFX ignatz  06-13-2008, 11:48 PM | Post #2528406
1  

I have had a smallish position for about 3 years and have made just about 1% per month in that time, with low volatility,

But it is tough to recommend. You simply can't rely on it as some sort of near riskless fund that will consistently beat CDs or money market funds. Can you say HSGFX?? I knew you could.

It has a 30% position in precious metals. If you aren't on the right side of that, it is highly unlikely to be worthwhile. I just got lucky and bought when gold was around 500 and enjoyed the ride up to 1000. If gold had moved from 500 to only 600 or gone down, I would be singing a different tune.

I would buy it only to the extent you are confident in the precious metals outlook. If you are confident in the precious metals outlook, why not buy gold? If you aren't confident in the precious metals outlook, why consider it? It simply isn't a sure thing.

Unless you bite off a major chunk of it---20% or more of portfolio--it isn't likely to have a major impact on your overall return. I don't want to bet a major portion of my portfolio on what gold is going to do. 

This is all aside from the high expense ratio.

I have drawn a line in the sand at the 200 day moving average. If it's hit, I'm gone and out with maybe a 10% per year return. It has broken that trendline only once and very briefly in the last few years and is currently about 80 cents above it. In spite of my misgivings, I'm perfectly willing to continue to hold it, subject to the 200 day line.

It is excellent for a taxable account if you want to own it. If you are considering a buy, I personally wouldn't do it until and unless precious metals had been seriously pounded for an extended period. That hasn't happened lately.

 

Topics expense ratio moving average precious metals taxable account volatility View Complete Thread
 
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