Hi Jeff,
On PRPFX, it may be just the kind of diversified, defensive approach that's required to survive these perilous times. In fact, PRPFX would probably get us through financial Armageddon! The attraction of it is its asset allocation - which, as the name implies, does not change.
One big reservation is the very heavy precious metal allocation - but that's just because I don't understand PMs. I guess I'd rather see a smaller position there and more in other commodities. Another reservation would be the implied currency play: 10% in Swiss franc assets; why not just a foreign bond component? Also, I don't know what his "aggressive growth" stocks are and if Mr. Cuggino is good at picking them. Or if he's smart about managing his bond allocation.
One could easily construct one's own "Permanent Portfolio" - but I lean towards the El-Erian model. As you know, PRPFX is:
- 20% gold
- 5% silver
- 10% Swiss franc assets
- 15% RE and Natural Resource stocks
- 15% Aggressive growth stocks
- 35% t-bills
Looking back at PRPFX's old fact sheets, it was the same AA four years ago. The AA does not evolve based on market conditions, as far as I know. IMHO, that's a problem.
Heebner's CGMFX would fit in perfectly as the "aggressive growth" component of PRPFX. If you want Heebner, I'd buy CGMFX. He's able to take short positions in CGMFX - very helpful at present! I have 4% in CGMFX and don't have the stomach to buy, say, 10%. (My loss, probably.) Anyway, it's a one man show and he's capable of making big mistakes - such as in 2002 when he gave back 40% during the summer! OAKBX only dropped 16% during the same period. The thing is, he bounced back very quickly.
Hope this helps! We're all just amateurs here, you know, making it up as we go along.
Norbert