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You are EXACTLY in the right area and asking EXACTLY the right question, if you ever intend on investing purely for income.

First, there is virtually nothing published on this in the popular press or popular web sites, which are all devoted to total return....at least all the one's I've ever looked at. So what you find, you've got to figure out on your own.

I calculate Operational Free Cash Flow.....or for REITs, the Adjusted Funds from Operations, by taking pretax earnings (not EBITDA, as interest on debt and tax is an expense you've got to allow for), subtract out the non-cash expenses which are usually ammortized expenses and depreciation. Subtract out capital gains (of all types) and investment income. Add back all capital expendatures (CAP EX), which represent non-deductible expense the company made, usually capital improvements or purchasing of depreciable capital property. Then subtract out the company's (C-Corps) tax bill for the quarter. There are other fine adjustments but these usually add up to less than 2% of the company's cash flow.

What you've got left is the free cash flow from company operations over which the company managers have discretionary control.  These are the actual dollars the company uses to pay dividends.

If you chart these out, I generally expect it to grow at least with inflation. The danger sign is when they flatten out or decline over 2 quarters. Why 2? Every dividend cut I've ever seen has had at least 2 successive quarters of declining FCF.  However, firing the stock too early runs the risk of shedding yourself of a security that rebounds....but it also provides a bit of insurance in not having to later fire a stock that the market has already beaten up.  Indeed, I've fired a few, like OGE and HPT whose cash flows had declined as I've described, but them later  seemed to have gotten their sh** together, resumed their positive cash flow and have since raised their dividend slightly. But I have no regrets. But I've found that companies with FCF growth in the 8-10% constistant long term growth band, particularly over at least 10 years, rarely decline...at least for the dividend paying securities I've looked at. JNJ and O are excellent examples...although O is on my watch list as retail slows.

I'm not sure how M* calculates company FCF, but these look about as I remember them for PFE (which I fired 2 years ago). So try this....back test these on some stocks that have cut their dividends and see if you can find a point at which the FCF decline correlates to the eventual dividend cut. This might be the # of successive quarters of declining FCF...or perhaps the % of FCF decline...or perhaps the current FCF compared to a 5 year moving average. Like I say, I've never come across anyone who does this solely to predict dividend stability....but it shouldn't be that hard to do.

BruceM