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Re: GLRE oildog  06-05-2008, 2:33 AM | Post #2524912
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Must be a bug in Yahoo's statistics.  Einhorn owns about 17% of the shares, so he has about a $55 million stake. 

You'll have to come to your own conclusions about the firm's prospects.  I believe they have the right philosophy on the reinsurance-side, and I'm inclined to think Einhorn will be able to add some value on the investment-side.  Of course, compared to established players like Berkshire or Markel, we don't have a track record on the reinsurance side so there is a higher level of uncertainty. 

Offsetting that to some extent, GLRE is much smaller so has the potential to increase book value at a higher rate - when Markel at Berkshire were at market caps comparable to GLRE today, annualized growth in book value was more like 30%, compared to the mid-teens today. Nonetheless, you'll notice that BRK and MKL are trading at around 1.6-1.7 times book value, compared to GLRE, which was at 1.0 when I bought and about 1.2 today.  That's more like the current valuation for AIG, a company who's stock has been cut in half over the past year after it lost billions on complex credit derivatives tied to the U.S. housing market. 

So IMO, the main attraction here is the margin of safety provided by the price.  If GLRE turns out to be a proto-MKL, you'll get a 30% annualized return buying at book value.  If GLRE turns out to be just an average or somewhat below average reinsurance company, you'll still do OK based on the current valuation.  It's not a super-safe investment, because it's hard to evaluate the reinsurance-side given the short track record & we can't completely discount the possibility of a major cat. loss.  However, IMO, the odds were good enough to initiate a modest position.

Best,
Oildog 

Topics Berkshire Hathaway book value housing market market cap valuation View Complete Thread
 
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