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Re: Bonds vs Bond Funds chipmunk  06-02-2008, 5:14 PM | Post #2524017
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If you read Larry Swedroe's excellent book on bonds, you will discover that there are many risks to consider, such as default (credit) risk, interest rate risk, call risk, etc. Although holding a long-term GE bond may not involve much default risk, the other risks are still there. The biggest risk I see with this bond is interest rate risk. If interest rates rise to address inflation, then the value of your bond will fall. Most experts I've read say to stay away from long-term bonds because they have a higher correlation with equities than short-/intermediate-term bonds, which are preferred. Something like 5 years duration (or average duration for a bond fund) or less is a good rule of thumb.

By only holding a single bond issuer, your risk increases because if GE goes out of business (not likely, but could happen), you could end up with nothing. If instead you were to purchase, for example, a GE bond, an AT&T bond, a Citigroup bond, an Exxon-Mobil bond, and a US treasury bond, your risk would go down substantially.

Another thing to consider is that if you only need bonds for income (not trying to rebalance with equities), try to match your time horizon with duration. So, if you just need income for the next 30 years, this bond would work, as long as you don't mind a volatile value during that time.

Dan

Topics average duration correlation interest rate risk target US Treasury bonds View Complete Thread
 
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