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Re: Trying to calculate inflation rayden  05-30-2008, 10:02 AM | Post #2522895
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EagleTed:
If you don't like the CPI numbers, see what the market is pricing government bonds and you'll get a fair idea of what the inflation rate is.

You'd think, but no ;)  bond rates are political, basically determined by a handful of central banks and other large bondholders, think china/japan/abu dhabi. So they're gonna be whatever those guys can stomach - and apparently, for whatever reasons I don't understand completely (leverage? building out export-oriented industries?) they have been willing to stomach a large negative real rate of return.

EagleTed:
Don't like that, look at 30 year mortgage rates. Banks stay in business by staying ahead of inflation.

But bank officers/employees make money by issuing loans (=bonuses/commissions etc), which is why banks don't tend to stay in business without help ;)

EagleTed:
Don't like that, keep good records and see how your cost of subsistence has risen/fallen. Don't include any luxury items. And adjust for seasonal use of energy, etc.

Yup, done that, 8% avg for the past 10yrs.  ymmv.

Topics China Commission government bonds mortgage rates rate of return View Complete Thread
 
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