I don't see anything wrong with 5% either... that is my long term goal allocation for the energy sector.  I would tend to ride a winning sector as well, but if your holdings get way over your long term allocation, keep your finger on the trigger.  Remember tech in 2000... and be wary of "it is different this time" arguments (they always sound credible and they always end the same way).

There is going to be tremendous political pressure by incumbants to not upset the masses with very large price hikes.  Long term, I think that high prices of oil are here to stay and that is probably a good thing.  Reduced reliance on oil is needed for multiple reasons, including trade deficits, air pollution and global, and the limited nature of the resource (eventually, we run out of oil no matter what we do).  Shorter term, oil could get relatively cheap again.

erryl